Trevor Larnach under 0.5 hitsL
Sep 7, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.0400
Read original reasoning
Larnach is 0-for-7 (.000 AVG) in career PAs vs Melton across 2025-2026. The 2026 portion shows 6 PA with 0.500 OPS — meaning he has drawn walks but recorded zero hits against this pitcher. His L28d OPS is 0.532 and L7d is 0.528, indicating a broader cold stretch. The +104 odds on the under implies a near coin-flip, but the 0-for-7 career hitless record vs Melton is a meaningful signal that the market is underpricing.
Trevor Larnach under 0.5 hitsL
Sep 1, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.1400
Read original reasoning
Larnach is 0-for-4 career vs Melton with a 0.250 OPS — no hits in 4 plate appearances. His 2026 line against Melton is 3 PA with 0.333 OPS, still no hits recorded. Melton's 1.86 ERA and 1.23 WHIP make him elite at suppressing contact. Larnach's L28d OPS of 0.471 shows a deeper slump that compounds the BvP signal. Under 0.5 hits at +114 is a fair price for a matchup where he has zero career hits against this pitcher.
Trevor Larnach under 0.5 hitsW
Aug 29, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.1000
Read original reasoning
Larnach is 2-for-11 (.182 AVG, 0.581 OPS) in 13 PA career vs Fedde — the most actionable BvP sample on the Twins side. His 2024 sample (9 PA, 0.472 OPS) and limited 2026 appearances (2 PA, 0.500 OPS) suggest continued struggle. Fedde has a 4.18 ERA in 2026 with efficiency when ahead in counts. Larnach's L28d OPS is only 0.597, and the Twins are on a 3-game losing streak with suppressed offensive output. At +110 (47.6% implied), the career .182 mark vs Fedde provides a small but real edge to the under.
