Ty France over 0.5 total basesW
Oct 4, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.5700
Read original reasoning
France is 2-for-3 (.667 AVG, 2.334 OPS) vs Henderson in 2026 with 1 HR in that sample — noting small sample size (3 PA), but the quality of contact is striking. Season context supports him: .295 AVG, .869 OPS vs RHP, and an .869 vRHP split. He is a professional contact hitter facing a pitcher he has tagged hard in limited exposure. Over 0.5 total bases at -175 (63.7% implied) aligns with the BvP upside and season-long profile. Main pick has Padres ML (MEDIUM), which supports SD offensive contributors getting on base and producing.
Ty France over 1.5 total basesW
Sep 30, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.3200
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France vs Gausman career: 21 PA, .333 AVG, 0.818 OPS across multiple seasons including a 2026 showing of 3 PA 1.167 OPS. Season line: .295 BA, .502 SLG, and a .869 OPS vs RHP — the best vRHP mark among regulars on this SD roster. France is a plus contact hitter who consistently puts the ball in play, limiting strikeout risk. Gausman's 4.51 ERA in 2026 reflects real contact vulnerability. Over 1.5 total bases at +132 offers positive-odds value on a contact-first hitter with genuine production history against today's starter.
Ty France under 0.5 hitsL
Sep 19, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.5000
Read original reasoning
France is 1-for-10 (.100 AVG, 0.282 OPS) across 11 PA vs Eury Pérez — the largest BvP sample of any SD batter facing today's starter and a clear career suppression pattern. Despite a strong 2026 season (.301/.366/.521) and hot L7d (1.149 OPS), the career matchup is the most data-backed signal in this game. The under is priced at +150, offering genuine value over the 40% implied probability the market assigns to it.
