Tyler Glasnow

Glasnow posted 11.92 K/9 in 2026 (98 K in 74 IP). Last 3 starts: 11, 10, 7 K — only the 4.0 IP MIA blowout outing kept him from sweeping the over. Career vs ATL: 7 K (Aug 25 2026), 8 K (Mar 31 2025), 10 K (May 04 2024) — zero starts under 7 against this club. ATL lineup is historically futile vs Glasnow: Olson 17 PA .154 AVG 0.507 OPS, Riley 12 PA .083 AVG 0.166 OPS, Albies 12 PA .100 AVG 0.267 OPS, Ha-Seong Kim 7 PA .000 AVG 0.286 OPS. Extended rest (13 days) keeps pitch count ceiling high. Postseason intensity + elimination pressure = more swings early. Line is priced practically even at -103, representing real value given his K floor in this matchup.

Glasnow's 2026 K/9 is 11.6 (87 K in 67.2 IP). Last 3 starts: 10, 7, and 8 Ks — all three cleared 6.5, averaging 8.3. The SD lineup he faces is historically helpless against him: Jackson Merrill is 0-for-9+ with 0.000 OPS career (2024: 7 PA, 0.000 OPS; 2025: 2 PA, 0.000 OPS), Ty France .111 AVG with 0.222 OPS career, Fernando Tatis Jr. .100 AVG with 0.382 OPS career, Manny Machado .091 AVG with 0.595 OPS career, Jake Cronenworth .100 AVG with 0.367 OPS career. Six days of extended rest adds sharpness. The 6.5 line sits nearly 2 full Ks below his recent 8.3-per-start average.

Glasnow's 2026 K/9 is 11.24 (77 K in 61.2 IP). Last 3 starts: 7K (4.0 IP), 8K (6.0 IP), 6K (7.0 IP) — he hit 7 in just 4 innings in his most recent shortened outing. Faced SF on Apr 23 and posted 9 K in 8 scoreless innings. SF is a weak contact team (.248 AVG, 4.2 R/G). Risk: pitch-count management is real after Dodgers ran a bullpen game 09/17 and may be preserving arms for playoff seeding; early exit could cap Ks. But his per-inning K rate is elite enough that even 5-6 innings projects well above 6.5. Extended 6-day rest supports full outing.