Tyler Mahle under 5.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 24, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.8800
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Mahle's last 3 starts: 6 K (6.0 IP), 3 K (7.0 IP), 3 K (6.0 IP) — averaged 4.0 Ks per outing and went under 5.5 in 2 of 3. Full-season K/9 of 8.31 (133 K in 144 IP) reflects his ceiling, but recent output shows a sustained dip well below the 5.5 line. His lone 2026 start vs CIN on Apr 15 yielded 6 K but in only 4.0 IP during a blowout — an outlier, not a signal. At -114 the under captures real trending downside.
Tyler Mahle under 4.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 18, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.7100
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Mahle's last two starts produced just 3 K each (PHI Sep 12: 7.0 IP, 3 K; @PHI Sep 6: 6.0 IP, 3 K) — back-to-back contact-suppression efforts where he induced weak contact rather than missing bats. His season K/9 calculates to ~8.28 (127 K in 138.0 IP), but the recent trajectory is 3-3-9 with the most current starts being the two 3-K outings. HOU makes contact as a team (.240 AVG). The COL outing (9 K) was the exception, not the rule. Under 4.5 at -141 (58.5% implied) aligns with Mahle's current approach.
Tyler Mahle under 4.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 12, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.8800
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Mahle has faced PHI three times in 2026 and recorded 3 K, 3 K, and 6 K — two of three well under the 4.5 line. His season K/9 is 8.52 (124 K in 131 IP), but his PHI-specific profile skews low contact volume. PHI's lineup includes Bryson Stott (0-for-8, 0.000 OPS vs Mahle in 2026), Brandon Marsh (0-for-6, 0.000 OPS), and Justin Crawford (0-for-6, 0.000 OPS) — these are free outs that don't require strikeouts. Market is near coin-flip (-114 under), giving real value on the PHI-specific suppression pattern.
