Tyler Stephenson

Career vs Snell: 6 PA, .000 AVG, 0.167 OPS — 0 hits across two separate seasons (2023: 3 PA 0.000 OPS; 2024: 3 PA 0.333 OPS). Stephenson's season slash of .246/.328/.419 is nothing special, and his L7d OPS is 0.607. Facing one of the most dominant strikeout pitchers in baseball who has made him look helpless historically, +116 on the hitless outcome is solid value.

Career vs Yamamoto: 3 PA, .000 AVG, 0.000 OPS — 0-for-3 (explicit small sample caveat: 3 PA is not a reliable predictive sample). Season: .247/.331/.421, which is league-average at best. Against an elite starter in Yamamoto or the reported Skubal, Stephenson's modest contact profile raises the floor for an 0-fer. +102 on the under offers slight plus-money value, which is the main driver of inclusion given the thin BvP evidence.

Stephenson has a career .500 AVG and 1.205 OPS across 13 PA vs Peterson, with a blazing 2.333 OPS in his 4 PA against Peterson in 2026. He has crushed Peterson across three different seasons (2023: 5 PA 0.800 OPS, 2025: 4 PA 0.750 OPS, 2026: 4 PA 2.333 OPS). Stephenson remains in the lineup as the primary catcher and is not among the Reds' waiver moves. The main pick is Under 8.0 (LOW confidence) and we're not in a high-confidence low-scoring environment, so a hot BvP batter over 0.5 hits is defensible.