Walbert Ureña over 5.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 23, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.2000
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Ureña is running 8.73 K/9 across 144.1 IP in 2026 with a sharp 2.74 ERA. Last 3 starts: 9 K (7.0 IP vs MIN), 7 K (6.0 IP vs WSH), 4 K (8.0 IP vs PIT) — two of three over 5.5, and the 4-K outing came in 8 innings of 1-run ball where efficiency mattered more than punch-outs. vs ATH in 2026: 5 K, 6 K, 4 K across three starts — above 5.5 in two of three. ATH rank 4th-worst in the AL in OPS vs RHP (.644). At +120 the market is underpricing a pitcher with genuine swing-and-miss stuff on extended rest.
Walbert Ureña over 4.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 17, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6000
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Ureña's 2026 K/9 is 8.59 over 137.1 IP — that projects to 6-7 Ks per start at typical outing length. Last 3 starts: 7, 4, 8 Ks. The 4 K outlier came in a 8.0 IP efficient outing against PIT — a volume-limiting scenario, not a stuff problem. MIN has no career BvP data against Ureña at all, meaning he can attack without tendencies working against him. At a 4.5 line, his season rate clears this comfortably in any full-length start. Over at -167 is priced correctly for the edge.
Walbert Ureña over 4.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 12, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.7900
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Ureña carries a 8.50 K/9 across 131.1 innings in 2026, and the line of 4.5 Ks is extremely low relative to his season profile. Even in his worst recent start — 4 Ks over 8 full innings vs PIT — he still matched the line. His NYY start yielded 8 Ks in 7 innings. WSH batters have zero career matchup data against him, meaning a cold read on his arsenal. With 6 days rest sharpening his command, projecting 5-7 Ks against a WSH lineup that ranks middle-of-pack in contact rate is reasonable. Line is too cheap to pass.
