Walker Buehler under 4.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 20, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6100
Read original reasoning
2026 K/9 of 7.67 but last 3 starts produced just 1 K (4.2 IP Sep 15 @COL), 4 K (2.1 IP Sep 09 WSH), and 6 K (5.0 IP Sep 04 NYY) — averaging 3.67 K per outing. Most recent start was 1 K in 4.2 IP against a lesser offense. Series game 3, both bullpens depleted; SD likely on a pitch count with Buehler given playoff push context. Under at -164 reflects market awareness but last-3-start average of 3.67 K sits clearly below the 4.5 line.
Walker Buehler over 3.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 15, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.1000
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Buehler's 2026 K/9 is 7.86 (121 K in 138.2 IP). Last 3 starts: 4 K in 2.1 IP (vs WSH), 6 K in 5.0 IP (vs NYY), 3 K in 5.0 IP (@TB) — average 4.3 Ks per outing, above the 3.5 line in 2 of 3. The outs prop set at 14.5 (~4.8 IP projected) at his K/9 implies ~4.2 Ks. COL .214 team AVG vs RHP (3rd-worst in NL). Key risk: his Sep 9 exit after 2.1 IP signals possible command issues, and Coors altitude marginally suppresses swing-and-miss; a short outing again kills the over. At +110 the odds offer meaningful value if he delivers 5 IP.
Walker Buehler over 3.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 9, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6800
Read original reasoning
Buehler's 2026 K/9 is 7.72 with 117 K in 136.1 IP. Last 3 starts: 6, 3, 4 K — averaging 4.3 K per outing. Even in his weakest recent start (3 K in 5 IP) he nearly touched the line. The 3.5 floor is a low ask for a pitcher at his K rate. WSH posts a .248 team AVG and 5.1 R/G, a lineup that won't suppress strikeout upside. His 6-K outing vs the Yankees in his most recent start confirms he can run it up when command is on.
