Will Warren over 4.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 20, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.8300
Read original reasoning
Warren is 10-6 with a 3.89 ERA over 148 IP in 2026, posting a K/9 of 8.94 (147 K / 148 IP). In his two most recent full starts he struck out 6 (5.2 IP vs MIN) and 8 (6 IP vs COL). His 15.5 outs market is priced -167 suggesting the market expects him to pitch deep into this game. ARI batters have minimal career exposure to Warren — most appear in the 'no career matchup data' list, removing any familiarity edge for hitters. Over 4.5 at -120 is well-supported by his K rate and projected innings.
Will Warren over 4.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 14, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.9500
Read original reasoning
Warren's 2026 K/9 sits at 8.92 (141 K in 142.1 IP). In his two full recent starts: 8 K vs COL (6.0 IP, Sep 09) and 7 K vs BOS (7.0 IP, Aug 30). The abbreviated 0-K outing vs SD was only 2.1 IP — not representative of his stuff. He fanned 7 in 6.2 IP vs MIN last Aug 11 2025. At -105, the market is nearly even on a pitcher who regularly exceeds 4.5 Ks in any start lasting 5+ innings. MIN is 70-79, hitting .244/.723 OPS — a below-average offense. Strong edge on the over.
Will Warren over 4.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 9, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6800
Read original reasoning
Warren's 2026 K/9 of 8.79 (133 K in 136.1 IP) is the primary driver here. His Sep 4 start (2.1 IP, 0 K) was a clear outlier — likely weather or early hook — after a Aug 30 gem of 7 IP, 7 K and an Aug 25 outing of 5 IP, 4 K. On 10 days extended rest, expect a reset to normal workload. COL lineup hits .253 AVG and their pitching staff posts only 7.02 K/9, suggesting a lineup capable of striking out. At his K/9 rate in a 5-6 inning outing, Warren projects to 4.9–5.9 strikeouts — comfortably over 4.5. Outs market has Warren at 17.5 outs, implying a deeper outing that supports the K count. Warren also showed 7 K vs COL in May 2025 in 4 innings (albeit a small sample).
