Yoshinobu Yamamoto over 6.5 strikeoutsL
Oct 12, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.8200
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Yamamoto's 2026 K/9 sits at 9.0 (192 K in 192 IP). Last start: 10 K vs ATL (Oct 6). vs MIL in 2026: 9 K across 6 IP in August, 3 K in a dominant 7 IP gem in May where strikeouts weren't needed. 2025 NLCS: 7 K across 9 IP. Two of three documented MIL matchups exceeded 6.5. Extended 19-day rest typically sharpens his elite breaking ball command. His 6 PA sample vs MIL lineup shows he generates weak contact when not accumulating Ks, keeping the over live. Postseason shortening risk holds this to MEDIUM.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto over 6.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 23, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.0000
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Yamamoto's last 3 starts: 7 K, 10 K, 8 K — all in 7.0 IP outings. In 2026 vs SD specifically: 10 K and 8 K in two of three matchups. SD's lineup is completely neutralized against him: Tatis .188 AVG / 0.466 OPS in 18 PA (2026: 9 PA, 0.222 OPS), Machado .188 AVG / 0.653 OPS (2026: 9 PA, 0.111 OPS), Merrill .167 AVG / 0.334 OPS, France 0-for-5 in career. Yamamoto's 2026 K rate across 179.0 IP with 8 days rest pointing to a deep, dominant outing. Over 6.5 at +100 is exceptional value for this caliber of pitcher in this matchup.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto over 7.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 15, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.9400
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Yamamoto's 2026 K/9 sits at 8.95 over 172.0 IP. Last three starts vs CIN specifically: 10 K (Sep 09), 9 K (Oct 01 2025), 9 K (Jul 28 2025) — three consecutive outings above the 7.5 line against this exact lineup. CIN batters career vs Yamamoto show systemic futility: Bleday 0-for-5, Stephenson 0-for-3, Juan Brito 0-for-3, Héctor Rodríguez 0-for-3 — seven Reds position players carry a combined .000 AVG in career matchups. Market pricing (Over -106, Under -130) actually underweights the CIN-specific dominance pattern. Yamamoto on 6 days rest at full strength.
