Zack Littell under 3.5 strikeoutsV
Aug 4, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6500
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Littell's 2026 K/9 is approximately 5.8 (68 K in 105.2 IP), well below what's needed to comfortably clear 3.5. Last 3 starts: 2 K (4.2 IP), 5 K (5 IP), 4 K (6 IP) — averaging 3.7 Ks, barely above the line, and trending down with just 2 Ks most recently. The PHI lineup now includes Luis Arraez, who struck out only 21 times in 464 PA this season — the hardest batter in baseball to strikeout. Arraez's addition meaningfully compresses Littell's K ceiling. Phillies are 39-31 vs RHP. Littell's past two starts vs PHI: 5 K and 1 K. Under at -154 reflects strong market consensus; the data fully supports it.
Zack Littell over 2.5 strikeoutsW
Jul 18, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.5800
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Littell's last 3 starts: 5K, 3K, 3K — all three cleared 2.5, averaging 3.7 Ks. His 2026 K/9 sits at 5.7 over 90.0 IP, modest but consistent enough to eclipse a low 2.5 line. Athletics are 0-10 in their last 10 games with an anemic offense, reducing plate-discipline quality and extending at-bats. While the -172 juice is steep, three consecutive outings over the line and a weak opposing lineup create a reliable floor.
Market unavailableV
Jul 4, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.7140
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Littell has just 49 K in 80 IP in 2026 (~5.5 K/9), well below league average. Last 3 starts: 3 K, 5 K, 2 K — averaging 3.3 per outing, which sits under the 3.5 line. PIT ranks 1st in hits and 3rd in runs scored, making them a contact-heavy lineup that suppresses strikeout volume. Littell's 5.29 ERA and elevated HR rate (22 HR, 2nd most in MLB) suggest he pitches to contact, not swing-and-miss. Short leash risk (5.0 IP or fewer in recent starts) further caps strikeout ceiling.
