Zebby Matthews under 4.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 21, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.8900
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Matthews' K/9 sits at 7.7 on the season (107 K in 125.1 IP), but last 3 starts show extreme volatility: 8K (6 IP vs NYY), 2K (2.1 IP blowup vs DET), 4K (5 IP vs CHW). Two of his last three starts came in under 4.5 Ks. The 8K outing was an outlier against a Yankees lineup — SF is a weaker offensive club hitting .247 as a team. Oracle Park (runs factor 0.93) is pitcher-friendly but suppresses big whiff counts as well. Market is nearly split (-112 under / -125 over), reflecting genuine uncertainty. Under has the lean given the recent floor and park context.
Zebby Matthews under 4.5 strikeoutsV
Sep 16, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.9500
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Matthews' 2026 K/9 is 7.48 (99 K in 119.1 IP). Last 3 starts K totals: 2 (2.1 IP vs DET), 4 (5.0 IP vs CHW), 5 (8.1 IP vs CHW) — only 1 of 3 cleared 4.5 and that came in his longest outing of the stretch. Career vs NYY: 0-2, 10.80 ERA in 13.1 IP. His last start was a disaster (2.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 BB) raising legitimate early-hook risk against an aggressive NYY lineup on a short day game. Under 4.5 at -105 is fair value given the outing-length volatility; Matthews needs 5+ innings to hit this number and his recent form says otherwise.
Zebby Matthews over 4.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 4, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.9600
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Matthews has a 7.47 K/9 in 2026 (93 K in 112.0 IP). His three starts vs CHW show consistent strikeout output: 5K (Aug 30), 6K (May 25), 5K (Sep 03 2025). In his Aug 30 masterpiece he went 8.1 IP, showing he can pitch deep into games vs this lineup. Over 4.5 at -104 is essentially a coin flip price on a pitcher who has cleared 4.5 Ks in all three career starts vs CHW. Batter matchup data reinforces his dominance: Benintendi 0-for-10 lifetime, Vargas .111 AVG, Meidroth .143 AVG.
