NFL Betting
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Anytime TD Board · 2026-10-08
This board is shown exactly as it was published before kickoff. Probabilities and odds are not updated after the slate.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys
Thu 8:15 PM ETJon's best play · Anytime TD
Bucky IrvingTB · RB
40.3%our model
vs32.8%market implied
+7.5ptsmodel edge
+205price at build
Our calibrated model gives Bucky Irving a 40.3% shot at the end zone, while the market is only pricing 32.8%. That gap is the play.
Where the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
- Bucky IrvingJon's best playTB · RB40% model · 33% market+7.5pts+205at build
- Ryan FlournoyJon's pickDAL · WR29% model · 25% market+3.7pts+295at build
- Cade OttonTB · TE21% model · 18% market+3.5pts+460at build
- Chris Godwin Jr.TB · WR21% model · 18% market+3.5pts+470at build
- Brevyn Spann-FordDAL · TE12% model · 9% market+2.9pts+1049at build
- Hunter LuepkeDAL · RB12% model · 10% market+2.4pts+900at build
Javonte Williams is the model's most likely scorer (54.2%) — but not a pick at today's price: the market is asking more than our number. Good pick, wrong price. Value opens at -118 or better.
Full model board · all 23 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
- 1Javonte Williamsmodel's #1DAL · RBoverpriced — value at -118 or better54% model · 66% market-196at build
- 2CeeDee LambDAL · WRoverpriced — value at +145 or better41% model · 50% market+102at build
- 3Bucky IrvingJon's best playTB · RB40% model · 33% market+205at build
- 4George PickensDAL · WRoverpriced — value at +202 or better33% model · 43% market+134at build
- 5Ryan FlournoyJon's pickDAL · WR29% model · 25% market+295at build
- 6Jake FergusonDAL · TE28% model · 29% market+245at build
- 7Emeka EgbukaTB · WR22% model · 26% market+285at build
- 8Cade OttonTB · TE21% model · 18% market+460at build
- 9Chris Godwin Jr.TB · WR21% model · 18% market+470at build
- 10Jalon DanielsTB · QBlimited data13% model · 26% market+290at build
- 11Tez JohnsonTB · WR12% model · 12% market+740at build
- 12Hunter LuepkeDAL · RB12% model · 10% market+900at build
- 13Brevyn Spann-FordDAL · TE12% model · 9% market+1049at build
- 14Tyler GoodsonDAL · RB11% model · 14% market+620at build
- 15KaVontae TurpinDAL · WR10% model · 11% market+780at build
- 16Dak PrescottDAL · QB9% model · 17% market+490at build
- 17Sean TuckerTB · RB8% model · 22% market+360at build
- 18Jonathan MingoDAL · WR8% model · 4% market+2497at build
- 19Luke SchoonmakerDAL · TE5% model · 9% market+1049at build
- 20Payne DurhamTB · TE5% model · 3% market+3105at build
- 21Bauer SharpTB · TElimited data4% model · 2% market+4102at build
- 22Kameron JohnsonTB · WR4% model · 5% market+1900at build
- 23Ko KieftTB · TE2% model · 2% market+4102at build
First TD scorer market (23)
Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.
- 1Javonte WilliamsDAL · RBATD 54.2%+285at build
- 2CeeDee LambDAL · WRATD 40.8%+500at build
- 3George PickensDAL · WRATD 33.1%+600at build
- 4Bucky IrvingTB · RBATD 40.3%+840at build
- 5Jake FergusonDAL · TEATD 27.6%+1150at build
- 6Ryan FlournoyDAL · WRATD 29.0%+1301at build
- 7Emeka EgbukaTB · WRATD 21.8%+1349at build
- 8Jalon DanielsTB · QBATD 12.7%+1349at build
- 9Sean TuckerTB · RBATD 8.1%+1849at build
- 10Cade OttonTB · TEATD 21.4%+2400at build
- 11Tyler GoodsonDAL · RBATD 11.0%+2400at build
- 12Chris Godwin Jr.TB · WRATD 21.0%+2497at build
- 13Dak PrescottDAL · QBATD 9.2%+2701at build
- 14KaVontae TurpinDAL · WRATD 10.3%+3301at build
- 15Tez JohnsonTB · WRATD 12.4%+3301at build
- 16Brevyn Spann-FordDAL · TEATD 11.6%+3702at build
- 17Hunter LuepkeDAL · RBATD 12.4%+4708at build
- 18Luke SchoonmakerDAL · TEATD 5.1%+5395at build
- 19Jonathan MingoDAL · WRATD 7.7%+6394at build
- 20Kameron JohnsonTB · WRATD 3.9%+6893at build
- 21Bauer SharpTB · TEATD 4.0%+9424at build
- 22Ko KieftTB · TEATD 2.2%+9424at build
- 23Payne DurhamTB · TEATD 5.0%+9424at build
