NFL Betting
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Anytime TD Board · 2026-10-12
This board is shown exactly as it was published before kickoff. Probabilities and odds are not updated after the slate.
Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams
Mon 8:15 PM ETDylan's best play · Anytime TD
Blake CorumLAR · RB
30.9%our model
vs26.3%market implied
+4.6ptsmodel edge
+280price at build
Our calibrated model gives Blake Corum a 30.9% shot at the end zone, while the market is only pricing 26.3%. That gap is the play.
Where the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
- Max KlareLAR · TElimited data14% model · 4% market+9.9pts+2497at build
- Ray DavisBUF · RB15% model · 5% market+9.7pts+1801at build
- Ty JohnsonBUF · RB22% model · 14% market+7.4pts+600at build
- Dean ConnorsLAR · RBlimited data10% model · 3% market+7.1pts+2903at build
- Tutu AtwellLAR · WR12% model · 6% market+6.5pts+1601at build
- Blake CorumDylan's best playLAR · RB31% model · 26% market+4.6pts+280at build
- Davis AllenLAR · TE15% model · 11% market+4.0pts+840at build
- Konata MumpfieldLAR · WR16% model · 13% market+3.2pts+700at build
- Tyler HigbeeLAR · TE32% model · 29% market+3.0pts+250at build
- Jordan WhittingtonLAR · WR11% model · 9% market+1.9pts+1000at build
- Dawson KnoxBUF · TE20% model · 18% market+1.5pts+450at build
- Josh AllenDylan's pickBUF · QB56% model · 55% market+1.4pts-120at build
Kyren Williams is the model's most likely scorer (58.9%) — but not a pick at today's price: the market is asking more than our number. Good pick, wrong price. Value opens at -143 or better.
Full model board · all 47 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
- 1Kyren Williamsmodel's #1LAR · RBoverpriced — value at -143 or better59% model · 63% market-172at build
- 2Josh AllenDylan's pickBUF · QB56% model · 55% market-120at build
- 3James CookBUF · RBoverpriced — value at -113 or better53% model · 55% market-120at build
- 4Puka NacuaLAR · WRoverpriced — value at +104 or better49% model · 56% market-125at build
- 5Davante AdamsLAR · WRoverpriced — value at +126 or better44% model · 51% market-105at build
- 6Tyler HigbeeLAR · TE32% model · 29% market+250at build
- 7Blake CorumDylan's best playLAR · RB31% model · 26% market+280at build
- 8Dalton KincaidBUF · TE29% model · 34% market+190at build
- 9Keon ColemanBUF · WR28% model · 29% market+240at build
- 10DJ MooreBUF · WR24% model · 36% market+180at build
- 11Khalil ShakirBUF · WR24% model · 30% market+230at build
- 12Colby ParkinsonLAR · TE23% model · 29% market+250at build
- 13Ty JohnsonBUF · RB22% model · 14% market+600at build
- 14Dawson KnoxBUF · TE20% model · 18% market+450at build
- 15Josh PalmerBUF · WR17% model · 18% market+450at build
- 16Konata MumpfieldLAR · WR16% model · 13% market+700at build
- 17Ray DavisBUF · RB15% model · 5% market+1801at build
- 18Davis AllenLAR · TE15% model · 11% market+840at build
- 19Max KlareLAR · TElimited data14% model · 4% market+2497at build
- 20Tutu AtwellLAR · WR12% model · 6% market+1601at build
- 21Skyler BellBUF · WRlimited data11% model · 12% market+740at build
- 22Jordan WhittingtonLAR · WR11% model · 9% market+1000at build
- 23Dean ConnorsLAR · RBlimited data10% model · 3% market+2903at build
- 24Jackson HawesBUF · TE10% model · 11% market+800at build
- 25Greg DortchBUF · WR9% model · 13% market+700at build
- 26Matthew StaffordLAR · QB8% model · 5% market+1801at build
- 27Keleki LatuBUF · TE6% model · 5% market+1801at build
- 28Jaylen WatsonLAR · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+6394at build
- 29Christian BenfordBUF · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+6893at build
- 30Maxwell HairstonBUF · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+6893at build
- 31Trent McDuffieLAR · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+8375at build
- 32C.J. Gardner-JohnsonBUF · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+4708at build
- 33Quentin LakeLAR · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+6394at build
- 34Cole BishopBUF · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+6893at build
- 35Kam CurlLAR · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+6893at build
- 36Bradley ChubbBUF · OLBlimited data1% model · 0% market+30203at build
- 37Terrel BernardBUF · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+7900at build
- 38Byron YoungLAR · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+9900at build
- 39Greg RousseauBUF · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+11948at build
- 40Nate LandmanLAR · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+11948at build
- 41Omar SpeightsLAR · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+11948at build
- 42Josaiah StewartLAR · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+12887at build
- 43Aaron DonaldLAR · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+23710at build
- 44Braden FiskeLAR · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
- 45Kobie TurnerLAR · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
- 46Deone WalkerBUF · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+26216at build
- 47DeWayne CarterBUF · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
First TD scorer market (27)
Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.
- 1Kyren WilliamsLAR · RBATD 58.9%+450at build
- 2Puka NacuaLAR · WRATD 49.1%+560at build
- 3James CookBUF · RBATD 53.1%+600at build
- 4Josh AllenBUF · QBATD 56.0%+600at build
- 5Davante AdamsLAR · WRATD 44.3%+700at build
- 6Dalton KincaidBUF · TEATD 28.7%+1200at build
- 7DJ MooreBUF · WRATD 24.4%+1250at build
- 8Khalil ShakirBUF · WRATD 24.1%+1500at build
- 9Keon ColemanBUF · WRATD 28.1%+1550at build
- 10Tyler HigbeeLAR · TEATD 31.6%+1651at build
- 11Colby ParkinsonLAR · TEATD 23.0%+1699at build
- 12Blake CorumLAR · RBATD 30.9%+1748at build
- 13Dawson KnoxBUF · TEATD 19.7%+2903at build
- 14Josh PalmerBUF · WRATD 16.9%+2903at build
- 15Ty JohnsonBUF · RBATD 21.7%+3497at build
- 16Davis AllenLAR · TEATD 14.6%+3702at build
- 17Greg DortchBUF · WRATD 9.4%+3900at build
- 18Konata MumpfieldLAR · WRATD 15.7%+3900at build
- 19Skyler BellBUF · WRATD 11.3%+4305at build
- 20Jackson HawesBUF · TEATD 10.1%+4900at build
- 21Jordan WhittingtonLAR · WRATD 11.0%+5888at build
- 22Ray DavisBUF · RBATD 15.0%+7900at build
- 23Dean ConnorsLAR · RBATD 10.4%+9900at build
- 24Keleki LatuBUF · TEATD 6.2%+9900at build
- 25Matthew StaffordLAR · QBATD 7.9%+9900at build
- 26Max KlareLAR · TEATD 13.7%+9900at build
- 27Tutu AtwellLAR · WRATD 12.4%+9900at build
