NFL Betting
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Anytime TD Board · 2026-10-19
This board is shown exactly as it was published before kickoff. Probabilities and odds are not updated after the slate.
Washington Commanders @ San Francisco 49ers
Mon 8:15 PM ETJon's best play · Anytime TD
George KittleSF · TE
50.7%our model
vs44.3%market implied
+6.5ptsmodel edge
+126price at build
Our calibrated model gives George Kittle a 50.7% shot at the end zone, while the market is only pricing 44.3%. That gap is the play.
Where the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
- Jordan JamesSF · RBlimited data12% model · 5% market+7.9pts+2098at build
- George KittleJon's best playSF · TE51% model · 44% market+6.5pts+126at build
- Treylon BurksWSH · WR18% model · 13% market+5.1pts+660at build
- Luke FarrellSF · TE14% model · 10% market+3.6pts+900at build
- Jayden DanielsWSH · QB31% model · 27% market+3.3pts+265at build
- Kaelon BlackSF · RB21% model · 19% market+2.5pts+430at build
- Antonio WilliamsWSH · WR19% model · 18% market+1.8pts+470at build
Christian McCaffrey is the model's most likely scorer (59.9%) — but not a pick at today's price: the market is asking more than our number. Good pick, wrong price. Value opens at -149 or better.
Full model board · all 28 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
- 1Christian McCaffreymodel's #1SF · RBoverpriced — value at -149 or better60% model · 71% market-250at build
- 2George KittleJon's best playSF · TE51% model · 44% market+126at build
- 3Mike EvansSF · WRoverpriced — value at +179 or better36% model · 54% market-118at build
- 4Jayden DanielsWSH · QB31% model · 27% market+265at build
- 5Jacory Croskey-MerrittWSH · RBoverpriced — value at +270 or better27% model · 49% market+104at build
- 6Terry McLaurinWSH · WR26% model · 32% market+215at build
- 7Stefon DiggsWSH · WR24% model · 29% market+240at build
- 8Rachaad WhiteWSH · RB22% model · 43% market+130at build
- 9Kaelon BlackSF · RB21% model · 19% market+430at build
- 10Chig OkonkwoWSH · TE20% model · 22% market+350at build
- 11Brock PurdySF · QB20% model · 23% market+330at build
- 12Antonio WilliamsWSH · WR19% model · 18% market+470at build
- 13Christian KirkSF · WR19% model · 20% market+400at build
- 14Treylon BurksWSH · WR18% model · 13% market+660at build
- 15Austin EkelerWSH · RB17% model · 24% market+320at build
- 16Brandin CooksSF · WR14% model · 27% market+265at build
- 17Luke FarrellSF · TE14% model · 10% market+900at build
- 18Jordan JamesSF · RBlimited data12% model · 5% market+2098at build
- 19Jeremy McNicholsWSH · RB11% model · 25% market+300stale
- 20Jacob CowingSF · WR11% model · 18% market+460at build
- 21Jordan WatkinsSF · WRlimited data9% model · 10% market+950at build
- 22Dyami BrownWSH · WR9% model · 7% market+1349at build
- 23John BatesWSH · TE9% model · 6% market+1699at build
- 24Ben SinnottWSH · TE9% model · 5% market+1748at build
- 25Brayden WillisSF · TE8% model · 10% market+900at build
- 26Luke McCaffreyWSH · WR7% model · 3% market+3702at build
- 27Kyle JuszczykSF · FBlimited data5% model · 13% market+700at build
- 28Colson YankoffWSH · TE4% model · 4% market+2603at build
First TD scorer market (28)
Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.
- 1Christian McCaffreySF · RBATD 59.9%+295at build
- 2Mike EvansSF · WRATD 35.8%+520at build
- 3George KittleSF · TEATD 50.7%+680at build
- 4Rachaad WhiteWSH · RBATD 22.1%+760at build
- 5Jacory Croskey-MerrittWSH · RBATD 27.0%+780at build
- 6Terry McLaurinWSH · WRATD 26.3%+1200at build
- 7Jayden DanielsWSH · QBATD 30.7%+1301at build
- 8Stefon DiggsWSH · WRATD 24.4%+1349at build
- 9Brandin CooksSF · WRATD 14.0%+1601at build
- 10Brock PurdySF · QBATD 19.5%+1699at build
- 11Austin EkelerWSH · RBATD 17.3%+1900at build
- 12Chig OkonkwoWSH · TEATD 20.1%+1900at build
- 13Jeremy McNicholsWSH · RBATD 10.9%+2001stale
- 14Kaelon BlackSF · RBATD 21.4%+2001at build
- 15Jacob CowingSF · WRATD 10.6%+2098at build
- 16Christian KirkSF · WRATD 19.0%+2199at build
- 17Jordan WatkinsSF · WRATD 9.1%+2701at build
- 18Antonio WilliamsWSH · WRATD 19.3%+2799at build
- 19Treylon BurksWSH · WRATD 18.3%+2799at build
- 20Kyle JuszczykSF · FBATD 5.1%+3105at build
- 21Brayden WillisSF · TEATD 7.5%+4708at build
- 22Dyami BrownWSH · WRATD 9.1%+4708at build
- 23Luke FarrellSF · TEATD 13.6%+4708at build
- 24John BatesWSH · TEATD 9.1%+4900at build
- 25Luke McCaffreyWSH · WRATD 6.9%+6394at build
- 26Jordan JamesSF · RBATD 12.4%+6893at build
- 27Ben SinnottWSH · TEATD 9.0%+9424at build
- 28Colson YankoffWSH · TEATD 4.4%+9424at build
