NFL Betting
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Anytime TD Board · 2026-10-22
This board is shown exactly as it was published before kickoff. Probabilities and odds are not updated after the slate.
New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears
Thu 8:15 PM ETJon's best play · Anytime TD
Colston LovelandCHI · TE
39.8%our model
vs37.0%market implied
+2.8ptsmodel edge
+170price at build
Our calibrated model gives Colston Loveland a 39.8% shot at the end zone, while the market is only pricing 37.0%. That gap is the play.
Where the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
- Jahdae WalkerCHI · WR13% model · 5% market+7.9pts+2001at build
- Cole KmetCHI · TE19% model · 16% market+3.0pts+540at build
- Colston LovelandJon's best playCHI · TE40% model · 37% market+2.8pts+170at build
- Corey KinerNE · RB13% model · 11% market+1.9pts+800at build
- Kyle WilliamsNE · WR14% model · 13% market+1.4pts+700at build
D'Andre Swift is the model's most likely scorer (48.4%) — but not a pick at today's price: the market is asking more than our number. Good pick, wrong price. Value opens at +107 or better.
Full model board · all 41 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
- 1D'Andre Swiftmodel's #1CHI · RBoverpriced — value at +107 or better48% model · 62% market-161at build
- 2Rhamondre StevensonNE · RBoverpriced — value at +135 or better43% model · 53% market-111at build
- 3Colston LovelandJon's best playCHI · TE40% model · 37% market+170at build
- 4A.J. BrownNE · WRoverpriced — value at +199 or better34% model · 43% market+134at build
- 5Rome OdunzeCHI · WRoverpriced — value at +213 or better32% model · 37% market+174at build
- 6Hunter HenryNE · TE28% model · 31% market+220at build
- 7Luther Burden IIICHI · WR26% model · 35% market+184at build
- 8TreVeyon HendersonNE · RB26% model · 25% market+300at build
- 9Roschon JohnsonCHI · RB20% model · 33% market+200at build
- 10DeMario DouglasNE · WR19% model · 24% market+310at build
- 11Cole KmetCHI · TE19% model · 16% market+540at build
- 12Kalif RaymondCHI · WR18% model · 21% market+370at build
- 13Efton Chism IIINE · WR16% model · 18% market+460at build
- 14Eli RaridonNE · TE16% model · 17% market+490at build
- 15Caleb WilliamsCHI · QB16% model · 24% market+320at build
- 16Drake MayeNE · QB16% model · 22% market+350at build
- 17Romeo DoubsNE · WR16% model · 24% market+320stale
- 18Kyle WilliamsNE · WR14% model · 13% market+700at build
- 19Corey KinerNE · RB13% model · 11% market+800at build
- 20Jahdae WalkerCHI · WR13% model · 5% market+2001at build
- 21Sam RoushCHI · TE10% model · 8% market+1100at build
- 22Zavier ScottCHI · RB10% model · 5% market+2001at build
- 23Zavion ThomasCHI · WR8% model · 7% market+1399at build
- 24Cameron LatuNE · TE6% model · 6% market+1601at build
- 25Tanner ArkinNE · TElimited data5% model · 6% market+1500at build
- 26Kevin ByardNE · FSlimited data1% model · 1% market+8909at build
- 27Jaylon JohnsonCHI · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+7419at build
- 28Malik MuhammadCHI · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+9424at build
- 29Cam LewisCHI · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+9900at build
- 30Christian GonzalezNE · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+10889at build
- 31Kyler GordonCHI · CBlimited data1% model · 0% market+23710at build
- 32Craig WoodsonNE · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+7419at build
- 33Dillon ThienemanCHI · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+7900at build
- 34Devin BushCHI · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+6893at build
- 35Christian EllissNE · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+9424at build
- 36D'Marco JacksonCHI · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+9900at build
- 37Robert SpillaneNE · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+18768at build
- 38Austin BookerCHI · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
- 39Kentavius StreetCHI · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
- 40Grady JarrettCHI · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
- 41James LynchCHI · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
First TD scorer market (24)
Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.
- 1D'Andre SwiftCHI · RBATD 48.4%+390at build
- 2Rhamondre StevensonNE · RBATD 42.5%+580at build
- 3A.J. BrownNE · WRATD 33.5%+820at build
- 4Luther Burden IIICHI · WRATD 25.6%+900at build
- 5Rome OdunzeCHI · WRATD 32.0%+900at build
- 6Roschon JohnsonCHI · RBATD 19.5%+900at build
- 7Colston LovelandCHI · TEATD 39.8%+950at build
- 8Hunter HenryNE · TEATD 27.5%+1349at build
- 9Caleb WilliamsCHI · QBATD 16.2%+1601at build
- 10TreVeyon HendersonNE · RBATD 25.6%+1651at build
- 11DeMario DouglasNE · WRATD 19.3%+1849at build
- 12Kalif RaymondCHI · WRATD 18.2%+1849at build
- 13Drake MayeNE · QBATD 16.2%+1900at build
- 14Eli RaridonNE · TEATD 16.3%+2497at build
- 15Efton Chism IIINE · WRATD 16.4%+2701at build
- 16Kyle WilliamsNE · WRATD 13.9%+2799at build
- 17Cole KmetCHI · TEATD 18.6%+2903at build
- 18Corey KinerNE · RBATD 13.0%+3497at build
- 19Zavion ThomasCHI · WRATD 8.1%+4102at build
- 20Sam RoushCHI · TEATD 9.9%+5888at build
- 21Cameron LatuNE · TEATD 6.2%+9424at build
- 22Jahdae WalkerCHI · WRATD 12.7%+9424at build
- 23Tanner ArkinNE · TEATD 4.9%+9424at build
- 24Zavier ScottCHI · RBATD 9.7%+9424at build
