NFL Betting
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Anytime TD Board · 2026-10-26
This board is shown exactly as it was published before kickoff. Probabilities and odds are not updated after the slate.
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
Mon 8:15 PM ETJon's best play · Anytime TD
Dameon PiercePHI · RB
31.0%our model
vs16.1%market implied
+14.9ptsmodel edge
+520price at build
Our calibrated model gives Dameon Pierce a 31.0% shot at the end zone, while the market is only pricing 16.1%. That gap is the play.
Where the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
- Dameon PierceJon's best playPHI · RB31% model · 16% market+14.9pts+520at build
- Ryan FlournoyDAL · WR26% model · 21% market+4.9pts+370at build
Javonte Williams is the model's most likely scorer (49.0%) — but not a pick at today's price: the market is asking more than our number. Good pick, wrong price. Value opens at +104 or better.
Full model board · all 28 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
- 1Javonte Williamsmodel's #1DAL · RBoverpriced — value at +104 or better49% model · 63% market-167at build
- 2CeeDee LambDAL · WRoverpriced — value at +190 or better35% model · 45% market+120at build
- 3Dameon PierceJon's best playPHI · RB31% model · 16% market+520at build
- 4George PickensDAL · WRoverpriced — value at +233 or better30% model · 38% market+164at build
- 5Dallas GoedertPHI · TEoverpriced — value at +256 or better28% model · 34% market+194at build
- 6Saquon BarkleyPHI · RB27% model · 49% market+104at build
- 7DeVonta SmithPHI · WR26% model · 36% market+178stale
- 8Ryan FlournoyDAL · WR26% model · 21% market+370at build
- 9Jaydon BluePHI · RB19% model · 19% market+420stale
- 10Dontayvion WicksPHI · WR17% model · 29% market+250stale
- 11Makai LemonPHI · WR16% model · 25% market+300at build
- 12Jake FergusonDAL · TE16% model · 28% market+260at build
- 13Darius CooperPHI · WR15% model · 25% market+300at build
- 14Brevyn Spann-FordDAL · TE10% model · 13% market+700at build
- 15Camden BrownDAL · WRlimited data9% model · 9% market+1000at build
- 16Dak PrescottDAL · QB9% model · 16% market+540at build
- 17Grant CalcaterraPHI · TE8% model · 9% market+1000at build
- 18Hunter LuepkeDAL · RB8% model · 8% market+1200at build
- 19Tanner McKeePHI · QB8% model · 10% market+900at build
- 20Eli StowersPHI · TElimited data7% model · 6% market+1699at build
- 21Tyler GoodsonDAL · RB7% model · 10% market+950at build
- 22KaVontae TurpinDAL · WR6% model · 14% market+640stale
- 23Elijah MoorePHI · WR6% model · 8% market+1200at build
- 24Johnny MundtPHI · TE6% model · 6% market+1699at build
- 25Jonathan MingoDAL · WR6% model · 9% market+1000at build
- 26Britain CoveyPHI · WR3% model · 7% market+1399at build
- 27Luke SchoonmakerDAL · TE3% model · 8% market+1200at build
- 28Hollywood BrownPHI · UNKlimited data1% model · 14% market+620at build
First TD scorer market (26)
Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.
- 1Javonte WilliamsDAL · RBATD 49.0%+310at build
- 2Saquon BarkleyPHI · RBATD 27.3%+500at build
- 3CeeDee LambDAL · WRATD 34.5%+580at build
- 4George PickensDAL · WRATD 30.0%+720at build
- 5DeVonta SmithPHI · WRATD 26.4%+950stale
- 6Dallas GoedertPHI · TEATD 28.1%+1049at build
- 7Jake FergusonDAL · TEATD 16.0%+1349at build
- 8Ryan FlournoyDAL · WRATD 26.2%+1399at build
- 9Darius CooperPHI · WRATD 15.2%+1450at build
- 10Makai LemonPHI · WRATD 16.4%+1550at build
- 11Dontayvion WicksPHI · WRATD 16.8%+1601stale
- 12Dameon PiercePHI · RBATD 31.0%+1849at build
- 13Jaydon BluePHI · RBATD 18.8%+2199stale
- 14Dak PrescottDAL · QBATD 8.5%+2298at build
- 15Tyler GoodsonDAL · RBATD 6.8%+2603at build
- 16Brevyn Spann-FordDAL · TEATD 9.7%+2701at build
- 17Tanner McKeePHI · QBATD 7.6%+3105at build
- 18Hollywood BrownPHI · UNKATD 0.5%+3497at build
- 19KaVontae TurpinDAL · WRATD 6.3%+3497stale
- 20Elijah MoorePHI · WRATD 5.9%+3702at build
- 21Jonathan MingoDAL · WRATD 5.6%+3702at build
- 22Camden BrownDAL · WRATD 9.1%+4708at build
- 23Hunter LuepkeDAL · RBATD 7.8%+5395at build
- 24Luke SchoonmakerDAL · TEATD 2.8%+5395at build
- 25Britain CoveyPHI · WRATD 3.1%+5888at build
- 26Johnny MundtPHI · TEATD 5.7%+5888at build
