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Anytime TD Board · 2026-10-29

This board is shown exactly as it was published before kickoff. Probabilities and odds are not updated after the slate.

Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers

Thu 8:15 PM ET
  • Josh WhyleGB · TE18% model · 7% market+11.0pts+1399at build
  • Mark RedmanGB · TElimited data11% model · 7% market+4.6pts+1399at build
  • Pierre StrongGB · RB13% model · 9% market+4.3pts+1000at build
  • John Metchie IIICAR · WR14% model · 10% market+3.9pts+900at build
  • MarShawn LloydGB · RB28% model · 26% market+2.9pts+290at build
  • Jonnu SmithGB · TE12% model · 11% market+1.7pts+840at build
model TD% market implied

Josh Jacobs is the model's most likely scorer (50.2%) — but not a pick at today's price: the market is asking more than our number. Good pick, wrong price. Value opens at -101 or better.

Full model board · all 28 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
  • 1Josh Jacobsmodel's #1GB · RBoverpriced — value at -101 or better50% model · 57% market-135at build
  • 2Chuba HubbardCAR · RBoverpriced — value at +130 or better44% model · 55% market-120at build
  • 3Christian WatsonDylan's best playGB · WR42% model · 44% market+126at build
  • 4Tucker KraftGB · TEoverpriced — value at +175 or better36% model · 38% market+164at build
  • 5Matthew GoldenGB · WRoverpriced — value at +178 or better36% model · 40% market+152at build
  • 6Tetairoa McMillanCAR · WR31% model · 38% market+164at build
  • 7MarShawn LloydGB · RB28% model · 26% market+290at build
  • 8Jalen CokerCAR · WR25% model · 34% market+190at build
  • 9Darren WallerCAR · TE19% model · 22% market+350at build
  • 10Josh WhyleGB · TE18% model · 7% market+1399at build
  • 11Savion WilliamsGB · WR15% model · 24% market+320at build
  • 12John Metchie IIICAR · WR14% model · 10% market+900at build
  • 13Pierre StrongGB · RB13% model · 9% market+1000at build
  • 14Tommy TrembleCAR · TE13% model · 21% market+370at build
  • 15Bryce YoungCAR · QB13% model · 14% market+600at build
  • 16Jonnu SmithGB · TE12% model · 11% market+840at build
  • 17Mark RedmanGB · TElimited data11% model · 7% market+1399at build
  • 18Jordan LoveGB · QB11% model · 13% market+680at build
  • 19Mitchell EvansCAR · TE10% model · 11% market+840at build
  • 20Brycen TremayneCAR · WR9% model · 9% market+1000at build
  • 21Anthony Tyus IIICAR · RBlimited data9% model · 7% market+1399at build
  • 22Bo MeltonGB · WR8% model · 15% market+580at build
  • 23Kaleb JohnsonGB · RB8% model · 29% market+250at build
  • 24David MooreCAR · WR8% model · 5% market+1801at build
  • 25Trevor EtienneCAR · RB8% model · 7% market+1399at build
  • 26J. Michael SturdivantGB · WR7% model · 7% market+1399at build
  • 27Coleman OwenGB · WR6% model · 6% market+1699at build
  • 28Feleipe FranksCAR · TE2% model · 3% market+2799at build
First TD scorer market (28)

Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.

Model edge is our calibrated anytime-TD probability minus the market-implied probability from the current price. A positive edge means our model rates the player higher than the market is pricing. Players without a positive edge are not plays at today's prices — however likely they are to score.

Limited data marks players with thin history (rookies, new roles); their probability is shrunk toward a position baseline and should be read cautiously.

Model TD% is a probability, not a prediction of certainty. Odds are the market offers captured when this board was built.

Model nfl_atd-v1r2-20260930