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Anytime TD Board · 2026-11-09
This board is shown exactly as it was published before kickoff. Probabilities and odds are not updated after the slate.
Buffalo Bills @ Minnesota Vikings
Mon 8:15 PM ETJon's best play · Anytime TD
Josh AllenBUF · QB
60.6%our model
vs52.1%market implied
+8.5ptsmodel edge
-109price at build
Our calibrated model gives Josh Allen a 60.6% shot at the end zone, while the market is only pricing 52.1%. That gap is the play.
Where the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
- Josh AllenJon's best playmodel's #1BUF · QB61% model · 52% market+8.5pts-109at build
- Keon ColemanBUF · WR27% model · 20% market+7.7pts+410at build
- Ray DavisBUF · RB14% model · 8% market+5.5pts+1150at build
- Aaron JonesMIN · RB35% model · 31% market+4.6pts+225at build
- Jauan JenningsMIN · WR19% model · 14% market+4.4pts+600at build
- Ty JohnsonBUF · RB17% model · 12% market+4.3pts+720at build
- Dawson KnoxBUF · TE16% model · 12% market+3.6pts+720at build
- Jackson HawesBUF · TE10% model · 8% market+2.4pts+1150at build
- Jordan AddisonMIN · WR29% model · 28% market+1.3pts+260at build
Full model board · all 40 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
- 1Josh AllenJon's best playmodel's #1BUF · QB61% model · 52% market-109at build
- 2James CookBUF · RBoverpriced — value at -102 or better51% model · 53% market-111at build
- 3Aaron JonesMIN · RB35% model · 31% market+225at build
- 4Justin JeffersonMIN · WRoverpriced — value at +213 or better32% model · 40% market+152at build
- 5Jordan AddisonMIN · WR29% model · 28% market+260at build
- 6DJ MooreBUF · WR28% model · 27% market+265at build
- 7Keon ColemanBUF · WR27% model · 20% market+410at build
- 8Dalton KincaidBUF · TE26% model · 27% market+275at build
- 9T.J. HockensonMIN · TE25% model · 33% market+205at build
- 10Jordan MasonMIN · RB24% model · 35% market+188at build
- 11Khalil ShakirBUF · WR22% model · 24% market+310at build
- 12Jauan JenningsMIN · WR19% model · 14% market+600at build
- 13Ty JohnsonBUF · RB17% model · 12% market+720at build
- 14Kyler MurrayMIN · QB16% model · 17% market+500stale
- 15Dawson KnoxBUF · TE16% model · 12% market+720at build
- 16Ray DavisBUF · RB14% model · 8% market+1150at build
- 17Jackson HawesBUF · TE10% model · 8% market+1150at build
- 18Josh PalmerBUF · WR9% model · 10% market+900at build
- 19Skyler BellBUF · WRlimited data8% model · 10% market+950at build
- 20DeeJay DallasMIN · RB8% model · 5% market+1849at build
- 21Ben YurosekMIN · TE8% model · 11% market+780at build
- 22Carson WentzMIN · QB7% model · 8% market+1150at build
- 23Greg DortchBUF · WR6% model · 3% market+2799at build
- 24Keleki LatuBUF · TE5% model · 4% market+2701at build
- 25Max BredesonMIN · RBlimited data5% model · 4% market+2400at build
- 26Myles PriceMIN · WR5% model · 11% market+820at build
- 27Gavin BartholomewMIN · TElimited data5% model · 7% market+1349at build
- 28Tai FeltonMIN · WR3% model · 17% market+500at build
- 29Harrison SmithMIN · FSlimited data1% model · 1% market+10889at build
- 30Byron MurphyMIN · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+8375at build
- 31Isaiah RodgersMIN · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+9424at build
- 32Josh MetellusMIN · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+13985at build
- 33Theo JacksonMIN · DBlimited data1% model · 1% market+13985at build
- 34Andrew Van GinkelMIN · OLBlimited data1% model · 1% market+12887at build
- 35Blake CashmanMIN · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+9900at build
- 36Eric WilsonMIN · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+10889at build
- 37Dallas TurnerMIN · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
- 38Jalen RedmondMIN · DLlimited data0% model · 1% market+19900at build
- 39Levi Drake RodriguezMIN · DLlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
- 40Tyrion Ingram-DawkinsMIN · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
First TD scorer market (28)
Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.
- 1Josh AllenBUF · QBATD 60.6%+440at build
- 2James CookBUF · RBATD 50.6%+500at build
- 3Jordan MasonMIN · RBATD 24.4%+760at build
- 4Justin JeffersonMIN · WRATD 31.9%+880at build
- 5DJ MooreBUF · WRATD 27.7%+1000at build
- 6Aaron JonesMIN · RBATD 35.4%+1049at build
- 7Dalton KincaidBUF · TEATD 25.8%+1100at build
- 8Jordan AddisonMIN · WRATD 29.1%+1200at build
- 9T.J. HockensonMIN · TEATD 25.1%+1200at build
- 10Keon ColemanBUF · WRATD 27.3%+1399at build
- 11Khalil ShakirBUF · WRATD 22.3%+1550at build
- 12Dawson KnoxBUF · TEATD 15.8%+2400at build
- 13Kyler MurrayMIN · QBATD 16.3%+2400stale
- 14Tai FeltonMIN · WRATD 3.3%+2799at build
- 15Jauan JenningsMIN · WRATD 18.7%+3301at build
- 16Ty JohnsonBUF · RBATD 16.5%+3301at build
- 17Carson WentzMIN · QBATD 6.9%+3497at build
- 18Myles PriceMIN · WRATD 4.8%+3702at build
- 19Skyler BellBUF · WRATD 8.2%+4102at build
- 20Ray DavisBUF · RBATD 13.5%+4708at build
- 21Greg DortchBUF · WRATD 6.0%+4900at build
- 22Josh PalmerBUF · WRATD 8.9%+4900at build
- 23Ben YurosekMIN · TEATD 8.1%+5395at build
- 24Jackson HawesBUF · TEATD 10.4%+5395at build
- 25Gavin BartholomewMIN · TEATD 4.8%+5888at build
- 26DeeJay DallasMIN · RBATD 8.2%+7419at build
- 27Max BredesonMIN · RBATD 4.9%+8375at build
- 28Keleki LatuBUF · TEATD 5.2%+9900at build
