Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys are coming in hot. Prescott carries a 117.1 passer rating through 2 games, 6 touchdowns against 1 interception, and became the franchise's all-time leading touchdown passer after a 4-TD, 0-interception performance last week against Washington. His career line against Baltimore tells you something important: 680 passing yards, 5 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions in 2 meetings, an average of 340 yards per game, with a best of 379 in their last matchup. The Dallas defense is a different story. Four players are out: safeties P.J. Locke and Malik Hooker, cornerback Cobie Durant, and linebacker DeMarvion Overshown. That secondary has already been exploited by dual-threat quarterbacks through two weeks of 2026, and now it faces the most dangerous one in the sport.

The structural story of this game runs through Derrick Henry. He leads the NFL with 212 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns in 2026, averaging 106.0 yards per game. In 2 career meetings with Dallas, Henry has 178 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns, including 151 yards and 2 touchdowns in their last meeting in September 2024. News intel is explicit: the Cowboys have not controlled the line of scrimmage against the run through the first two weeks of 2026. Jackson adds a second rushing dimension the Cowboys have no answer for. A member of the Dallas staff acknowledged it plainly: "There's been so much discussion this week about Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, and rightfully so. Those two are a dynamic backfield."

The situational factors deserve honest respect. Baltimore flew 10 hours to Brazil on Thursday night. Professional soccer players have flagged the Maracanã field surface. Fourth-quarter conditioning is a real concern for a team that crossed time zones and a hemisphere before kickoff. Our blended model projects the Ravens winning 28.1 to 24.5. The qualitative case behind that projection, Henry against an exposed run defense and Jackson as a second rushing threat, supports the same direction. The situational headwinds are a reason to reduce confidence. They are not a reason to flip the side.

• Derrick Henry leads the NFL with 212 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns in 2026. In 2 career games against Dallas, he has 178 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns, with 151 yards and 2 scores in their last meeting. News intel confirms the Cowboys have not controlled the line of scrimmage against the run through the first two weeks of 2026.
• Lamar Jackson has 74 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground in 2026. The Cowboys have surrendered the most quarterback rushing yards in the league through two weeks, having already been exploited by dual-threat quarterbacks. Jackson is the most dangerous version of this problem Dallas has seen all season.
• Dallas is missing four defensive backs for this game: safeties P.J. Locke and Malik Hooker, cornerback Cobie Durant, and linebacker DeMarvion Overshown. The secondary was already being tested and will be shorthanded against a Ravens offense that can attack in multiple ways when the run game opens up space.
• Zay Flowers is trending toward not playing with a hamstring injury. Flowers had 150 receiving yards in his only 2026 appearance. His likely absence shifts Baltimore's offense even further toward the ground game and narrows Jackson's passing options, making the Ravens' game-control identity even more central to the plan.
• Dak Prescott has 680 passing yards, 5 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions in 2 career games against Baltimore, averaging 340 yards per game. Game script projects Dallas trailing and needing to throw. CeeDee Lamb is averaging 98.5 receiving yards per game in 2026 and gives Prescott a genuine weapon to keep the Cowboys within the spread.
• Baltimore flew 10 hours to Brazil on Thursday night, and the Maracanã field surface has been flagged by soccer players who work it regularly. Fourth-quarter fatigue is a legitimate concern for a team that needs to close out a road game after a week of travel disruption in a foreign environment.

The Cowboys cover case is specific enough to take seriously. Prescott's career line against Baltimore, 680 passing yards and 5 touchdowns with zero interceptions across 2 games, is real, not a fluke. Dallas is missing four defensive backs, not four offensive linemen, and CeeDee Lamb at 98.5 receiving yards per game in 2026 gives Prescott the weapons to keep this within the number. The 10-hour Thursday flight to Brazil, the Flowers situation, and the flagged Maracanã surface are factors that can narrow any margin late in the fourth quarter. Bettors who want to take Cowboys +3.5 at -113 have a defensible position. Medium confidence means something is being left on the table. The model says Baltimore. The situational argument for Dallas says tread carefully on the margin.

Round out the ticket with Prescott over 266.5 at -118, backed by 2-for-2 career performances over this number against Baltimore, and the under 53.0 at -114 as a marginal lean supported by Flowers' likely absence and Baltimore's run-first identity. For the full slate, see our NFL picks today and parlay picks.