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The Call
Win probability lands with picks the day before kickoff; live market pricing follows once books post prices.
Picks drop the day before kickoff
The model runs after final injury reports. Until then the story below is the substance, and it updates daily.
The Wire
MIN @ TB · odds in decimalNothing on the wire for this game yet. Line moves, picks and scores land here.
Minnesota Vikings vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Game Preview
Minnesota's defense operates at the 88th percentile in pass rush and 84th in turnover generation, two traits that apply direct pressure to a Tampa Bay offense that protects the quarterback at just the 12th percentile. Minnesota converts in the redzone at the 85th percentile; Tampa Bay at the 21st. The Vikings' own offensive line is similarly exposed (6th percentile in sack protection), but Tampa Bay's pass rush ranks at only the 19th percentile.
The defining feature of this matchup is Minnesota's defensive profile, a unit that creates turnovers and pressure at a level Tampa Bay's offense has not been equipped to handle this season.
Check back the day before the game for the full preview and picks.
Minnesota Vikings vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Key Insights
- Minnesota's pass rush (88th pctl) and turnover-generation rate (84th pctl) against a Tampa Bay offensive line that protects at just the 12th percentile
- Redzone efficiency gap: Minnesota converts at the 85th percentile, Tampa Bay at the 21st, the difference in finishing drives could be decisive
- Whether Tampa Bay's third-down conversion rate (80th pctl) is enough to sustain drives against Minnesota's disruption-heavy defense
Key Players
Passing YardsMIN
Carson Wentz
276YDS
23/39, 3 TDQB
Rushing YardsMIN
Aaron Jones Sr.
145YDS
35 CAR, 1 TDRB
Receiving YardsMIN
Justin Jefferson
147YDS
11 REC, 2 TDWR
SacksMIN
Dallas Turner
3SACKS
LB
TacklesMIN
Blake Cashman
17TOT
LB
Passing YardsTB
Baker Mayfield
398YDS
44/62, 1 TD, 1 INTQB
Rushing YardsTB
Bucky Irving
134YDS
25 CAR, 1 TDRB
Receiving YardsTB
Chris Godwin Jr.
86YDS
7 RECWR
SacksTB
A'Shawn Robinson
1SACKS
DT
TacklesTB
Josiah Trotter
25TOT
LB
Recent Form2025 season
Minnesota Vikings
W13-10New York Giants
L13-3Baltimore Ravens
L34-6Denver Broncos
W39-22Green Bay Packers
W9-3Chicago Bears
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
W24-16New York Jets
W16-15Kansas City Chiefs
L19-0Jacksonville Jaguars
L33-27Cincinnati Bengals
L23-19Cleveland Browns
Early look at Minnesota Vikings vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Full preview and picks land the day before the game.
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