Before you look at the line, look at the Houston Texans injury report. Starting linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair is confirmed OUT with a groin injury, with Wade Woodaz stepping into the starting role. Safety M.J. Stewart is OUT with a knee injury. Edge rushers Jadeveon Clowney and Logan Hall are both QUESTIONABLE after being DNP on Friday, making their availability a genuine game-day question. The cumulative damage to Houston's front seven and secondary is substantial. Dallas brings its own concerns, with cornerback Cobie Durant OUT and linebacker DeMarvion Overshown OUT, both with hamstrings, but those losses land on a team that is playing offense with one of the more efficient quarterbacks in the league right now. The defensive attrition hits Houston harder in this specific game.

The form story runs deeper than a record comparison. The Texans are 0-3 in 2026, averaging 18.0 points per game on offense and allowing 25.0 on defense. Last season, Houston was a 12-5 team and one of the AFC's stronger outfits, but that was last season. Dallas is 1-2 in 2026, scoring 29.3 per game and allowing 27.3. The Cowboys went 7-9-1 last season with a negative point differential, so this is not a rebuilt powerhouse. What it is, right now in 2026, is a team with an efficient quarterback, a clean offensive line, and a 75.0% red zone touchdown rate that reflects how well Prescott has been executing near the end zone.

The subplot everyone will track is Nico Collins returning from a two-game hamstring absence. He was a full participant in Friday's practice with no injury designation for Sunday. His Week 1 benchmark against Buffalo was 7 receptions, 75 yards, and a touchdown, and that output is the baseline for what Houston's passing attack looks like with him healthy. Dallas counters with newly acquired cornerback Joey Porter Jr., who arrived via trade from Pittsburgh and could start in Week 4. Stroud finds Collins early, and how Porter responds to that challenge, will set the tone for Houston's passing game. Reliant Stadium is indoors, weather is irrelevant, and both teams have enough weapons to score. This comes down to quarterback play, defensive health, and whether Houston's home-field edge is actually worth 3 points.

• Prescott's 107.2 passer rating, 7-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and 69.5% completion rate in 2026 give Dallas a legitimate efficiency advantage at quarterback. He is operating behind an offensive line that has allowed only 3 sacks in 3 games, and he walks into a Houston defense missing its starting linebacker and starting safety. That is a favorable alignment for the visiting quarterback.
• Houston's defensive injury losses are significant and cumulative. Al-Shaair confirmed OUT at linebacker, Stewart OUT at safety, and both Clowney and Hall QUESTIONABLE after DNP Fridays means the Texans could be rotating depth personnel at multiple key positions for 60 minutes. The 3-point home-field premium carries less weight when your defense is short-handed at linebacker, safety, and potentially both edges.
• Nico Collins is back after a two-game hamstring absence, full participation Friday, no injury designation Sunday. His Week 1 line of 7 receptions, 75 yards, and a touchdown against Buffalo gives a clear baseline for what he provides when healthy. The early matchup with Joey Porter Jr., newly acquired from Pittsburgh, is the first chess move Stroud will make and the clearest early signal of how Houston's passing attack will function.
• The scoring environment points toward a game that plays into the high 40s. Houston allows 25.0 points per game in 2026. Dallas allows 27.3 with 0 interceptions and only 2 sacks all year. Both defenses are compromised by injury and both offenses have weapons. The indoor venue at Reliant Stadium removes any suppression factor entirely.
• David Montgomery carries a notable career tendency against Dallas: 5 games, averaging 69 rush yards per game against this opponent, with 4 rushing touchdowns in that sample. With Al-Shaair OUT and a backup linebacker replacing him at the point of attack, the interior of Dallas's run defense gets tested by a back who has historically run well against them.
• The split on Prescott is the caveat hanging over this game. He is 7 touchdowns and 1 interception in 2026, but he has thrown 4 interceptions in 2 career games against this Houston franchise. His last meeting with this defense ended with 2 interceptions. In a road environment against a motivated Will Anderson Jr. coming off a players-only meeting, one bad throw can compress any margin in a hurry.

The Cowboys +3.0 is the clearest angle on this board, built on the quarterback efficiency gap, a Dallas offensive unit that has been clean in protection and clinical in the red zone, and a Houston defense that was already allowing 25.0 points per game before losing its starting linebacker and starting safety. The Over at 47.5 is the secondary consideration, with both defenses compromised, Collins returning, and an indoor venue removing any weather suppression. The projection clearing the line by only half a point keeps the confidence at LOW, but the direction is right. Coach Brian Schottenheimer is in his second season with Dallas. Coach DeMeco Ryans is in his fourth with Houston. Both know their rosters well. The difference Sunday is that Ryans will be working with significantly fewer of his best defensive players.

One honest caveat before you commit: Prescott has thrown 4 interceptions in 2 career games against this Houston franchise, a stark contrast to his 2026 pace of 7 touchdowns and 1 interception. Road games against a motivated defense with something to prove are exactly where historical splits like that resurface. The Cowboys are the pick. Just know that a single bad throw can compress a 3-point margin to nothing in a hurry. For the full slate, see our NFL picks today and parlay picks.