The Call
Win probability lands with picks the day before kickoff; live market pricing follows once books post prices.
Picks drop the day before kickoff
The model runs after final injury reports. Until then the story below is the substance, and it updates daily.
The Wire
BAL @ ATL · odds in decimalLoading events...
Baltimore Ravens vs Atlanta Falcons Game Preview
Baltimore ranks first in the league in both early down success and explosive pass rate, and 94th in explosive run rate, making their offense one of the most explosive in the NFL. Their points per drive sits at the 78th percentile. The structural anomaly in Baltimore's profile is third down conversion at the 19th percentile, suggesting an offense that generates big plays on early downs but struggles when drive maintenance is required. Atlanta's redzone touchdown rate ranks 91st and their run game is strong (73rd pctl), but they have scored at only the 17th percentile in points per drive.
Atlanta plays at a 73rd percentile pace against Baltimore's 41st. Neither pass rush is among the elite: Baltimore ranks 31st, Atlanta 19th. Both offenses feature a disconnect between their play-generation traits and their actual scoring output, which makes this a less predictable game than the headline offensive numbers might suggest.
Check back the day before the game for the full preview and picks.
Baltimore Ravens vs Atlanta Falcons Key Insights
- Baltimore's explosive passing attack (100th pctl) against an Atlanta defense with a below-average pass rush (19th pctl), the Ravens' biggest play-making unit against the Falcons' most exploitable defensive trait
- Atlanta's redzone conversion rate (91st pctl) against a Baltimore defense with moderate turnover generation (56th pctl), the Falcons finish drives when they get there, but getting there has been the challenge
- The third down conversion problem for both offenses: Baltimore ranks 19th, Atlanta 28th, how each unit navigates third and medium situations will determine whether their scoring reflects their explosive play numbers
Key Players
Passing YardsBAL
Lamar Jackson
967YDS
68/96, 6 TD, 1 INTQB
Rushing YardsBAL
Derrick Henry
374YDS
89 CAR, 7 TDRB
Receiving YardsBAL
Zay Flowers
352YDS
18 REC, 2 TDWR
SacksBAL
Tavius Robinson
2SACKS
LB
TacklesBAL
Roquan Smith
34TOT
LB
Passing YardsATL
Michael Penix Jr.
479YDS
33/45, 2 TD, 1 INTQB
Rushing YardsATL
Bijan Robinson
494YDS
85 CAR, 4 TDRB
Receiving YardsATL
Drake London
370YDS
20 RECWR
SacksATL
Za'Darius Smith
2.5SACKS
DE
TacklesATL
Xavier Watts
24TOT
S
Recent Form
Baltimore Ravens
W41-3Washington Commanders
W41-23Indianapolis Colts
L24-17New Orleans Saints
W34-31Dallas Cowboys
W24-18Tennessee Titans
Atlanta Falcons
W17-12Miami Dolphins
L20-13Pittsburgh Steelers
L34-3Carolina Panthers
W35-14Green Bay Packers
W45-24New Orleans Saints
Early look at Baltimore Ravens vs Atlanta Falcons. Full preview and picks land the day before the game.
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