The Call
Win probability lands with picks the day before kickoff; live market pricing follows once books post prices.
Picks drop the day before kickoff
The model runs after final injury reports. Until then the story below is the substance, and it updates daily.
The Wire
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Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons Game Preview
Chicago is the fastest-paced team in the league this season (100th pctl) and brings a strong pass rush (86th pctl) to Atlanta, where the Falcons have built an elite explosive passing attack (94th pctl) and solid early-down efficiency (75th pctl). The Bears can generate big plays on the ground (86th pctl) and convert third downs at a strong clip (78th pctl), but their red zone finishing is near the bottom of the league (6th pctl), meaning drives repeatedly stall inside the 20.
Atlanta's protection has been poor (22nd pctl sack rate allowed), a direct setup against Chicago's pass rush. The Falcons generate turnovers at a low rate (14th pctl), a concern against a Bears defense that plays at a relentless tempo. The stylistic clash here is Atlanta's explosive passing game against Chicago's pace and pressure.
Check back the day before the game for the full preview and picks.
Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons Key Insights
- Chicago's pass rush (86th pctl) against Atlanta's leaky protection (22nd pctl sack rate allowed) -- a 64-percentile-point gap that shapes the entire defensive side of this game
- Whether Atlanta's elite explosive passing attack (94th pctl) can make plays against a Bears defense operating at a relentless pace (100th pctl)
- Chicago's red zone problems (6th pctl TD rate) against an Atlanta defense that struggles to force turnovers (14th pctl) -- the Bears may score points despite themselves if they get close enough
Key Players
Passing YardsCHI
Tyson Bagent
409YDS
42/64, 3 INTQB
Rushing YardsCHI
D'Andre Swift
354YDS
78 CAR, 4 TDRB
Receiving YardsCHI
Rome Odunze
273YDS
17 RECWR
SacksCHI
Austin Booker
4SACKS
DE
TacklesCHI
Dillon Thieneman
37TOT
S
Passing YardsATL
Michael Penix Jr.
719YDS
52/77, 3 TD, 1 INTQB
Rushing YardsATL
Bijan Robinson
580YDS
102 CAR, 4 TDRB
Receiving YardsATL
Drake London
488YDS
27 RECWR
SacksATL
Za'Darius Smith
2.5SACKS
DE
TacklesATL
Xavier Watts
34TOT
S
Recent Form
Chicago Bears
W59-37Carolina Panthers
L9-3Minnesota Vikings
W27-7Philadelphia Eagles
W23-12New York Jets
L31-7Green Bay Packers
Atlanta Falcons
L20-13Pittsburgh Steelers
L34-3Carolina Panthers
W35-14Green Bay Packers
W45-24New Orleans Saints
Early look at Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons. Full preview and picks land the day before the game.
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