The Call
Win probability lands with picks the day before kickoff; live market pricing follows once books post prices.
Picks drop the day before kickoff
The model runs after final injury reports. Until then the story below is the substance, and it updates daily.
The Wire
IND @ JAX · odds in decimalLoading events...
Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars Game Preview
Jacksonville has been one of the more dangerous offenses on the schedule, ranking at the 95th pctl in explosive pass rate and the 94th pctl in third down conversion while creating turnovers on defense at the 88th pctl. Indianapolis plays at a fast pace (80th pctl) and has been functional in the redzone (56th pctl), but ranks at just the 5th pctl in turnover generation, limiting the defense's ability to create scoring opportunities.
The Jaguars' pass rush grades at only the 31st pctl, so Indianapolis will likely have time to operate, a contrast with their own sack rate allowed at the 33rd pctl, which leaves their offense somewhat exposed. The 83-point gap in turnover creation between Jacksonville (88th) and Indianapolis (5th) is the most structurally significant imbalance heading into the week.
Check back the day before the game for the full preview and picks.
Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars Key Insights
- Jacksonville's 95th pctl explosive pass rate against an Indianapolis secondary, whether the Jaguars' downfield passing game can operate at its season-to-date level
- The 83-point gap in turnover creation between Jacksonville (88th pctl) and Indianapolis (5th pctl), how often Jacksonville's defense can manufacture short fields
- Indianapolis's fast pace (80th pctl) against a Jaguars defense that converts third downs at the 94th pctl on offense, whether the Colts can control enough possessions to stay in the game
Key Players
Passing YardsIND
Daniel Jones
1,398YDS
143/240, 4 TD, 7 INTQB
Rushing YardsIND
Jonathan Taylor
587YDS
140 CAR, 8 TDRB
Receiving YardsIND
Josh Downs
307YDS
26 RECWR
SacksIND
DeForest Buckner
4SACKS
DT
TacklesIND
Akeem Davis-Gaither
60TOT
LB
Passing YardsJAX
Trevor Lawrence
1,480YDS
120/184, 14 TD, 4 INTQB
Rushing YardsJAX
Bhayshul Tuten
388YDS
94 CAR, 2 TDRB
Receiving YardsJAX
Parker Washington
416YDS
26 REC, 4 TDWR
SacksJAX
Travon Walker
2SACKS
DE
TacklesJAX
Foyesade Oluokun
42TOT
LB
Recent Form
Indianapolis Colts
W19-17Houston Texans
W30-13Washington Commanders
L34-22Pittsburgh Steelers
L26-20Tennessee Titans
L16-10Minnesota Vikings
Jacksonville Jaguars
L20-13Denver Broncos
W35-6New England Patriots
W22-17Cincinnati Bengals
W19-17Philadelphia Eagles
L34-31Houston Texans
Early look at Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars. Full preview and picks land the day before the game.
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