The Call
Win probability lands with picks the day before kickoff; live market pricing follows once books post prices.
Picks drop the day before kickoff
The model runs after final injury reports. Until then the story below is the substance, and it updates daily.
The Wire
HOU @ LAC · odds in decimalLoading events...
Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers Game Preview
Houston's offense ranks at the 86th percentile in explosive passing and 73rd in points per drive, backed by a pass rush at the 86th percentile. Los Angeles sits near the bottom of the league in points per drive (3rd percentile) and has struggled on early downs (12th percentile) and in the red zone (16th percentile) throughout the season.
The Chargers' primary weapon is turnovers, Los Angeles generates them at an 80th-percentile rate while Houston protects the ball at just the 11th percentile, a 69-point gap that gives the Chargers a realistic path to staying competitive. Los Angeles's own pass protection ranks at the 12th percentile, directly facing a Houston pass rush at the 86th percentile, the pressure matchup runs sharply in the Texans' favor.
Check back the day before the game for the full preview and picks.
Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers Key Insights
- Los Angeles's turnover-generation unit (80th pctl) against Houston's ball-security issues (11th pctl), turnovers are the Chargers' most viable path to competing
- Houston's pass rush (86th pctl) against Los Angeles's struggling pass protection (12th pctl sack rate allowed), the most direct and lopsided unit matchup in this game
- Whether Houston's explosive passing (86th pctl) can create separation quickly enough to offset any turnover-driven momentum swings from the Chargers
Key Players
Passing YardsHOU
C.J. Stroud
1,867YDS
160/247, 11 TD, 1 INTQB
Rushing YardsHOU
Woody Marks
271YDS
77 CAR, 2 TDRB
Receiving YardsHOU
Jaylin Noel
331YDS
19 REC, 2 TDWR
SacksHOU
Will Anderson Jr.
7.5SACKS
DE
TacklesHOU
Azeez Al-Shaair
58TOT
LB
Passing YardsLAC
Justin Herbert
1,398YDS
131/212, 5 TD, 10 INTQB
Rushing YardsLAC
Omarion Hampton
309YDS
89 CAR, 3 TDRB
Receiving YardsLAC
Ladd McConkey
286YDS
17 REC, 1 TDWR
SacksLAC
Khalil Mack
3SACKS
LB
TacklesLAC
Daiyan Henley
41TOT
LB
Recent Form
Houston Texans
L19-17Indianapolis Colts
L34-30Dallas Cowboys
W26-3Tennessee Titans
W34-31Jacksonville Jaguars
Los Angeles Chargers
L24-16Buffalo Bills
L30-23Seattle Seahawks
L23-17Denver Broncos
L22-6Kansas City Chiefs
L24-9Los Angeles Rams
Early look at Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers. Full preview and picks land the day before the game.
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