• Seattle’s pass game is built on chunk plays
  Seattle owns an explosive pass rate of 12.3% on 219 attempts, which means roughly one in eight throws gains at least 15 yards, the top percentile in the league. That pairs with a 9.1% deep pass explosive rate, so their downfield shots are a real weapon.

• Cardinals defense quietly fights back against the pass
  Arizona allows explosive passes on only 7.2% of dropbacks across 319 attempts, a solid mark. Even with several corners Questionable or on injured reserve, the coverage unit has not been a soft spot by the numbers.

• Seahawks run defense can force Arizona to the air
  Seattle’s explosive_run_allowed rate sits at just 1.0% on 199 rushing plays. That is elite and suggests running backs rarely break 10-plus yard gains. With the Cardinals backfield beat up and their explosive_run_rate only 4.0%, Arizona may need Brissett to carry the offense.

• Cardinals offense is strong on third down and long drives
  Arizona converts 48.1% of all third downs and 35.1% of third and long, both near the top of the league, and they finish long drives at a 91.7% success rate over a small sample of 24 series. That fits Brissett’s reputation from the storylines as a steady operator who can extend drives.

• Both defenses hold up reasonably well in the red zone
  Arizona’s redzone_td_rate allowed is 57.1% over 28 trips, and Seattle’s sits at 52.0% over 25 trips. Those are solid numbers and suggest drives may end in field goals more often than pure touchdowns, especially with both teams missing pieces on offense.

• Protection is a key difference between the two offenses
  Seattle allows sacks on just 3.1% of dropbacks, which ranks near the top of the league over 225 passes. Arizona gives up sacks on 9.1% of dropbacks across 297 passes, one of the weaker marks. With multiple Cardinals linemen Questionable and the Seahawks front also banged up, whoever wins the pass protection battle can tilt the game.

• Market leans hard to Seattle but at a cost
  The spread at Seahawks -6.5 (-125) and Cardinals +6.5 (-111) shows clear respect for Seattle, yet you have to pay extra juice on the favorite. Juice is the fee baked into the price. If you back the Seahawks, you rely on their elite explosive pass rate and strong sack_rate_allowed to separate by a full score.

• Total of 46.0 lines up with explosive passing and strong run defense
  The main total of 46.0, with Over at +104 and Under at -122, reflects a tug of war. Seattle’s offense brings top-tier explosive passing and a 70.4% redzone_td_rate, while both defenses grade well in red zone and run stopping. An Over play leans into big plays and short fields. An Under play leans into both defenses holding in close.

• Seahawks team total 26.5 points sits near their offensive ceiling in this matchup
  Seattle’s team total checks in at 26.5, with Over -116 and Under -120. The Over asks Darnold to keep the explosive_pass_rate near 12.3% against a capable Arizona secondary and to convert at a high rate in scoring range. The Under leans on Cardinals third_down_stop_rate at 63.3% and their solid red zone defense.

• Cardinals team totals price in a decent Brissett-led attack
  Arizona’s team total offers 18.5 at -120 to the Over and -118 to the Under, plus an alt 19.5 at -118 Over and -104 Under. Their strong third_down_conversion rate and 58.1% redzone_td_rate support an Over case if Brissett stays clean. The Under leans into Seattle’s 62.6% third_down_stop_rate and elite run defense forcing Arizona into long-yardage spots.

• Quarterback passing props match their offensive identities
  Jacoby Brissett sits at 227.5 passing yards, Over -118, Under -120. Sam Darnold sits at 244.5, Over -120, Under -119. Arizona’s pressure_to_sack_conversion is only 5.3%, which helps Darnold’s Over path. Seattle’s strong coverage and pass rush, with an 8.3% sack_rate_generated, raise the risk on Brissett’s Over despite Arizona’s good third down traits.

• Feature pass catchers have high but logical receiving lines
  Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s receiving line is 93.5 yards with both sides juiced near even, while Trey McBride sits at 61.5. JSN’s line fits Seattle’s top-ranked explosive_pass_rate and his huge target share from the storylines, but any Over has variance at that height. McBride’s line reflects his central role in a high third_down_conversion offense. As always, check Marvin Harrison Jr.’s status before touching his 56.5 number, since he is listed as Questionable with a concussion.

This matchup sets up as a classic “strength on strength” game. Seattle’s explosive passing offense faces an Arizona secondary that has held up better than expected, even with multiple injuries. On the other side, Brissett pilots a Cardinals attack that excels on third down and long drives, but he must operate behind a shaky offensive line against a Seahawks front that converts pressure to sacks at a high rate.

From a betting angle, the Seahawks deserve to be near-touchdown favorites, and the -6.5 number shows that. At the same time, you pay real juice to back them, and Arizona’s strong third down traits can keep drives alive and make any backdoor cover possible. The total around 46.0 splits the difference between what the passing games could do and what the defenses have already shown in the red zone.

Props give you more targeted ways to play the game script. Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Trey McBride sit at big but reasonable numbers based on their roles and their teams’ traits. The quarterback yardage lines align with how each offense wins, and the team totals let you decide if Seattle’s home issues and Arizona’s new life with Brissett matter more than the raw talent edge.

With long injury reports on both sides and a spread near a key number, this is a spot where bankroll management matters. A few explosive plays or a single turnover swing can flip spreads and props. Treat the juice and the variance with respect, and pick your angles with the understanding that both teams have clear paths to beating or missing their numbers.