• Cincinnati lives in shotgun (64.5%, 97th percentile), which helps Burrow stay in rhythm and push tempo when they get rolling.

• The Ravens give up explosive passes too often (8.4%, 11th percentile), and that is dangerous vs a quick-strike Bengals attack (3.6, 95th percentile).

• Baltimore can create points quickly too (quick strike 3.5, 91st percentile), but they have struggled to turn red-zone trips into touchdowns (41.2%, 6th percentile).

• The Bengals defense has trouble getting stops on third down (47.0% stop rate, 3rd percentile). That can lead to long drives and tired legs late.

• Baltimore’s pass-catchers are a swing factor: Mark Andrews (Questionable) and Rashod Bateman (Questionable) could change target shares and red-zone play calls.

• Cincinnati’s pass rush takes a hit with Trey Hendrickson on IR, which can matter if Lamar has extra time to throw or scramble.

• Ravens -3 (-105): If Cincinnati keeps struggling to end drives on defense (third-down stop rate 47.0%, 3rd percentile), Baltimore can control time of possession and pressure Burrow.

• Over 51.5 (-118): Both teams rate as strong “one-play TD” threats (BAL big-play TD rate 26.5%, 91st percentile; CIN 37.8%, 100th percentile). The risk is Baltimore’s red-zone issues (41.2% TD rate).

• Joe Burrow Over 267.5 pass yards (-118): Baltimore allows explosives through the air (8.4%, 11th percentile) and rarely turns pressure into sacks (3.5% sack rate, 6th percentile).

• Lamar Jackson Over 33.5 rush yards (-116): With Cincinnati’s edge rush thinner (Hendrickson on IR), Lamar’s scrambles can turn broken plays into first downs.

• Zay Flowers Over 64.5 rec yards (-118): Baltimore’s explosive pass rate is above average (7.7%, 67th percentile), and the Bengals have injury pressure in the secondary.

• Ja’Marr Chase Anytime TD (-179): Cincinnati finishes big plays as TDs at an elite rate (37.8%, 100th percentile) and can score fast (quick strike 3.6, 95th percentile). Heavy juice, so shop your risk.

This game has a clean storyline: Cincinnati just embarrassed Baltimore, and the Ravens get a quick shot at payback. The line still likes Baltimore, but the matchup is not simple. The Ravens have to solve two problems at once: protect Lamar from bad-down situations, and stop leaving points on the field in the red zone.

Cincinnati’s path is also clear. Burrow needs time, and Baltimore has not been a high-sack defense this year. If the Bengals hit early explosives, they can force Baltimore into a faster script than they want.

Injuries can swing the prop board and the way each team calls the game. Keep an eye on Mark Andrews and Tee Higgins. If either is limited, it changes where the ball goes in high-leverage spots.

If you are betting it, respect the juice and the variance. A total around 51.5 means one busted coverage can wreck an under, and one red-zone stall can kill an over.