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MIA
BAL
Game Preview
The Ravens visit the Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium for Thursday night football. Baltimore is laying a touchdown plus a hook at -7.5 (-108) with a 50.5 total priced Over -115 / Under -102. The board signals points and variance.
Baltimore’s profile leans explosive. They lead the league in big-play touchdown rate (37%) and carry a 6.3% explosive run rate (94th percentile). That pairs with Derrick Henry’s power and Lamar Jackson’s legs if he’s good to go. Protection is the watch item: several Ravens linemen are on the report, and Baltimore ranks poorly in sack rate allowed (10.2%, 9th pct).
Miami has shifted without Tyreek Hill. The Dolphins still stress you with motion and runs; they rank 89th percentile in explosive run rate (6.2%) and sit 75th percentile on third down (42.3%), including elite 3rd-and-long conversion (33.9%, 97th pct). They’ll need that efficiency because their downfield explosive pass rate is low this season, and health is a question for Tua Tagovailoa, De’Von Achane, and Jaylen Waddle.
The hidden hinge is Baltimore’s defense. The unit struggles to create sacks and turnovers and has allowed a 9.5% explosive pass rate. Miami’s pass game can extend drives, but the Dolphins also allow gashes on the ground (explosive runs allowed 9.1%). That’s a tough mix against Henry and a QB run threat.
Current Season Form
MIA
AwayBAL
HomeHead-to-Head Summary
Past Results
| Date | Opponent | Result | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-26 | @ ATL | W 34-10 | W +7.0 | u44.5 |
| 2025-10-19 | @ CLE | L 6-31 | L 2.5 | o34.5 |
| 2025-10-12 | vs LAC | L 27-29 | L -3.5 | o45.5 |
| 2025-10-05 | @ CAR | L 24-27 | L -1.5 | o44.5 |
| 2025-09-29 | vs NYJ | W 27-21 | W +2.5 | o44.5 |
| 2025-09-18 | @ BUF | L 21-31 | L 12.5 | o50.5 |
| 2025-09-14 | vs NE | L 27-33 | L 1.5 | o43.5 |
| 2025-09-07 | @ IND | L 8-33 | L 1.5 | u47.5 |
| 2025-01-05 | @ NYJ | L 20-32 | L 1.5 | o39.5 |
| 2024-12-29 | @ CLE | W 20-3 | W +-3.0 | u32.5 |
Key Insights
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Explosive on explosive: Baltimore’s 37% big-play TD rate meets Miami’s defense that gives up chunk runs (9.1% explosive runs allowed).
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Drive-sustaining edge for Miami: Dolphins are 97th percentile on 3rd-and-long conversion (33.9%); Ravens’ defense is bottom tier in sacks and turnovers.
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Ravens’ run ceiling: BAL 6.3% explosive run rate (94th pct) vs MIA front that can leak rush explosives.
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Red zone swing: Ravens’ defense has allowed 71.4% red-zone TDs; Miami offense is 60.9% RZ TD.
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Injury variance: Lamar (Q), Waddle (Q), Achane (Q) could reshape usage; OL health on both sides is a live factor.
Betting Insights
Spread: Ravens -7.5 (-108) — number leans to BAL’s explosive edge; key is Miami’s banged-up skill group.
Total: Over 50.5 (-115) if at least two of Lamar/Waddle/Achane trend in; explosives on both sides raise volatility.
Alt spread: Ravens -8.5 (+103) adds payout if you think Baltimore front-runs with the ground game.
Anytime TD: Derrick Henry -256 is pricey but fits the matchup; De’Von Achane -143 (Q) if active for Miami’s run explosives.
Player props: Lamar over 34.5 rush -122 (Q) leverages Miami’s middling pressure; Isaiah Likely over 20.5 rec -118 as a chain-mover if WRs are limited.
Final Summary
Baltimore brings the higher ceiling. The Ravens create touchdowns off explosives and can stress Miami’s run defense with Henry and quarterback keepers. If Lamar plays without limits, Baltimore’s quick-strike ability shows up early.
Miami’s path is efficiency. They convert third downs at a high rate and can still pop runs with Achane if he’s healthy. Without Tyreek Hill, the Dolphins need sustained drives and red-zone finishing to keep pace.
The handicap leans Ravens if their offensive line holds and Jackson is active. Miami’s injuries at quarterback, receiver, and tackle raise the floor risk. The total leans high when the key playmakers are in, but watch the inactives; a couple of downgrades can push this toward middling pace.
Lean: Ravens -7.5 (-108); Over 50.5 (-115) with the caveat that Lamar/Achane/Waddle statuses matter. Keep stakes modest given the injury clouds and the game’s variance profile.
Statistical Battle Boards
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Points | 174 | #18 | 215 | #5 | |
| Total Points Per Game | 24.9 | #13 | 26.9 | #26 | |
| Total Touchdowns | 20 | #16 | 22 | #23 | |
| Passing Touchdowns | 11 | #21 | 11 | #9 | |
| Rushing Touchdowns | 8 | #11 | 10 | #30 | |
| Other Touchdowns | 1 | #12 | 1 | #21 | |
| Total Kicking Points | 54 | #19 | 73 | #3 | |
| Total Two Point Conversions | 0 | #21 | 2 | #2 | |
| Kick Extra Points | 18 | #16 | 19 | #10 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Passing Yards | 1276 | #31 | 1595 | #17 | |
| Net Passing Yards Per Game | 182 | #28 | 199 | #22 | |
| Passer Rating | 101 | #12 | 110 | #2 | |
| Passing Attempts | 185 | #32 | 224 | #8 | |
| Completions | 129 | #32 | 165 | #14 | |
| Completion Percentage | 69.7 | #7 | 73.7 | #32 | |
| Passing 1st downs | 63 | #32 | 84 | #17 | |
| Passing 1st Down % | 49.6 | #30 | 51.5 | #8 | |
| Longest Pass | 56 | #19 | 55 | #17 | |
| Passing Fumbles Lost | 2 | #6 | 3 | #5 | |
| Receiving Targets | 179 | #32 | 219 | #25 | |
| Receptions | 129 | #32 | 165 | #19 | |
| Receiving Yards After Catch | 565 | #32 | 881 | #22 | |
| YAC Average | 4.4 | #28 | 5.3 | #24 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 934 | #12 | 1160 | #29 | |
| Rushing Yards Per Game | 133 | #8 | 145 | #5 | |
| Rushing Attempts | 177 | #25 | 231 | #26 | |
| Yards Per Rush Attempt | 5.3 | #1 | 5 | #4 | |
| Rushing 1st downs | 51 | #14 | 59 | #25 | |
| 20+ Yard Rushing Plays | 7 | #5 | 10 | #2 | |
| Long Rushing | 71 | #5 | 53 | #12 | |
| Rushing Fumbles | 7 | #5 | 10 | #2 | |
| Rushing Fumbles Lost | 2 | #8 | 2 | #8 | 🏈 |
Game Preview of Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins. Week 9 of 2025 NFL Season
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