• Denver’s pass rush is a real problem for Buffalo’s line: the Bills allowed sacks on 7.8% of dropbacks (22nd percentile) while the Broncos generated sacks on 9.7% (100th percentile).

• The Broncos make big passes hard to find. They allowed explosive passes at just 4.8% (97th percentile).

• Buffalo lives on explosive throws, with a 9.6% explosive pass rate (89th percentile). That clash shapes the whole game.

• Third down can decide tempo. Denver posted a 66.0% third-down stop rate (100th percentile), which can force punts and shorten the game.

• Buffalo’s defense has injury stress points inside and on the back end, including DT Jordan Phillips on IR and starting safety Jordan Poyer out.

• Denver does not rely on takeaways. The Broncos’ turnover generation rate sat at 1.4% (31st percentile), so they can win without needing “gift” possessions.

• Broncos -3.0 (+116): You get plus money on the key number. That fits a Denver script built on sacks and third-down stops (both 100th percentile traits).

• Bills +3.0 (-156): This is heavy juice, meaning you pay extra to hold the field goal. If you play it, you are buying safety, not value.

• Under 46.5 (-128): The price leans under. Denver’s defense limits explosives (97th percentile in explosive passes allowed), which can force longer drives and fewer quick scores.

• Broncos moneyline (-116): This is the simple “win the game” angle. It pairs with Denver’s edge in pass rush and third down.

• Josh Allen Under 209.5 passing yards (-119): Denver’s coverage plus pass rush can squeeze the easy explosives Buffalo wants.

• Josh Allen Over 35.5 rushing yards (-123): If protection breaks down, Allen’s legs become Buffalo’s pressure release. Rushing props still swing on game script, so keep the stake modest.

Denver has the cleanest matchup edge on paper: pressure. The Broncos generate sacks at an elite rate, and Buffalo’s line has shown cracks. If Denver wins early downs and earns long-yardage throws, it can control the game.

Buffalo’s path is narrower but real. The Bills can still create chunk gains, and they finish in the red zone at a high rate. But Denver’s defense is designed to limit both of those things.

Injuries add another layer. Buffalo is missing key pieces in the secondary, and the offense has dealt with wide receiver losses. That can push more volume to tight ends, backs, and Allen’s scrambles.

The betting market reflects a tight, defense-tilted game. Broncos -3 at plus money is a notable shape, while the total sits in the mid-40s with the under slightly favored. No matter the side, remember playoff games swing on a few plays, and sacks and turnovers can flip everything fast.