• Buffalo’s big-play pass profile is real. The Bills were top-tier in explosive passes (9.6% rate, 89th percentile). That can punish any coverage bust.

• Jacksonville is built to steal possessions. The Jaguars’ turnover generation rate (2.6%, 97th percentile) is the type of trait that swings playoff games.

• Red-zone reps should be high leverage. Buffalo converts trips into TDs at a high clip (62.1%, 91st percentile), but Jacksonville has been elite at the goal line (67.9% stuff rate, 94th percentile).

• Watch Buffalo’s front seven availability. Terrel Bernard is out, and Buffalo is thin inside on the defensive line. That can show up in run fits and scramble containment.

• Jacksonville’s left tackle situation matters. Cole Van Lanen is questionable and Cooper Hodges is out. If protection slips, Lawrence may need to create outside structure.

• Pressure might not be constant. Jacksonville’s sack rate generated sits at 5.1% (19th percentile), so Buffalo may get cleaner pockets than people assume.

• Market is tight on the moneyline. Draw-no-bet prices sit at Bills -118 and Jaguars -118, which tells you the game is basically a coin flip.

• Spread menu shows real disagreement. One key number is Jaguars -3.0 (+134) with Bills +3.0 (-152). That juice is heavy, so price shopping matters.

• Total is posted in the low 50s. At 52.0, you can find Over -116 or Under -123. With a turnover-heavy defense on one side, live betting can matter if you get an early giveaway.

• Etienne rushing ladder starts at a playable mid-60s. Etienne over 63.5 rush yards (-118) fits the injury setup for Buffalo’s front and the expected Jacksonville script.

• Lawrence scrambling is priced like a real part of the plan. Over 25.5 rush yards (-115) makes sense if Jacksonville’s left tackle situation forces more movement plays.

• Cook’s rushing number is big versus this run defense. Cook under 83.5 rush yards (-119) lines up with Jacksonville allowing explosive runs at just 2.7% (78th percentile), but game script is the risk if Buffalo leads.

This game sets up as a clash of styles. Jacksonville wants to play clean, win field position, and let its defense hunt turnovers. Buffalo wants to land the explosive shots that change a game in two plays.

The most important “football” tension is in the scoring area. Buffalo has been strong in the red zone (62.1% TD rate). Jacksonville has been elite on the goal line (67.9% stuff rate). Whoever wins that trade probably wins the game.

Injuries also push the edges. Buffalo being without Terrel Bernard and being thin inside can show up against the run and against QB scrambles. Jacksonville’s left tackle health can shape how often Lawrence has to escape.

From a betting view, the market says “close.” The DNB is priced evenly at -118 both ways, while the spread options around 3 show mixed opinions. If you play it, respect the juice and leave room for variance. One turnover can flip everything in a matchup like this.