• The Saints push tempo: 18.9% no-huddle (97th percentile), which can stress communication on defense.

• New Orleans is built to end drives: 60.6% third-down stop rate (73rd percentile).

• Carolina has had trouble extending drives: 37.6% third-down conversion (19th percentile).

• The Saints can finish pressures: 6.6% sack rate generated (64th percentile), a real test for a Panthers offense that has been inconsistent.

• Carolina is aggressive on fourth down: 78.9% (94th percentile), and that can flip field position and time of possession.

• Watch the injury swing pieces: Jaycee Horn (Questionable) for Carolina, and Alvin Kamara plus Saints tackles (Questionable) for New Orleans.

• Panthers -3.0 (+100): Carolina’s path is winning the “extra possession” game with fourth-down decisions (78.9% aggression) and keeping the score tight.

• Saints +3.0 (-116): New Orleans’ stop rate on third down (60.6%) matches up well with Carolina’s third-down issues (37.6%).

• Under 40.5 (-116): both teams have traits that can stall drives, and New Orleans has been poor in the red zone (40.0% TD rate).

• Over 40.5 (-106): Saints pace (no-huddle) can create extra snaps, and QB runs can turn into chunk plays without “perfect” blocking.

• Saints team total 19.0 (Under -120): Kamara’s status is a big lever, and the Saints already finish drives poorly in the red zone.

• Panthers team total 21.0 (Under -122): the Saints pass rush (6.6% sack rate generated) plus Carolina’s low third-down conversion can cap scoring chances.

This looks like another tight NFC South fight. The total of 40.5 tells you the market expects a grind. That fits the way these teams can trade punts and live on field position.

Carolina’s upside comes from game management. They go for it on fourth down a lot, and they convert at a high clip. If those calls hit again, the Panthers can control the ball and squeeze the game.

New Orleans has a different kind of edge. The Saints can speed the game up with no-huddle, and Shough’s legs can break a defensive snap even when nothing is open.

If you are betting this one, keep it flexible. Kamara (Questionable) and Horn (Questionable) are the kind of names that can swing both side and total late in the week.