• Chicago’s defense stops 67.6% of third downs, which can tilt time of possession and field position.

• The Bears generate turnovers at a 3.8% rate, top tier for 2025, which raises Cincinnati’s risk on longer fields.

• Cincinnati allows explosive passes at a 9.9% rate, bottom tier, while Chicago’s offense creates explosive passes at 9.0%.

• The Bengals convert 68.2% of red-zone trips into touchdowns. Chicago’s defense allows TDs on 61.5% in the red area, so finishing drives is a Bengals lifeline.

• Chicago’s weakness is explosive runs allowed (6.5%). If Cincinnati can pop a couple on the ground, it eases pressure on the QB situation.

• Injury volatility: Bengals QB Joe Flacco is questionable; Bears WRs Rome Odunze and DJ Moore and TE Cole Kmet are questionable; RB D’Andre Swift is questionable.

• Anchor spread: Bears -3.0 (+110). This is plus money against a defense that allows a high rate of explosive passes and struggles on third-down stops. Price brings some cushion for variance.

• Total: Over 51.5 (-110). Cincinnati finishes drives well in the red zone, while Chicago can create explosive pass gains. The juice is standard.

• Team scoring: Bengals over 24.0 (-116). This leans into their 68.2% red-zone TD rate. Slight juice, but within range.

• Anytime TD: Ja’Marr Chase (-125). Volume plus a strong red-zone profile. Note volatility if Flacco is out.

• Anytime TD: Chase Brown (-120). Consolidated goal-line and short-yardage chances tie to Cincinnati’s red-zone efficiency.

• Player yardage: Caleb Williams over 237.5 pass yards (-120). Matchup fits with Cincinnati’s issues limiting explosive passes. Juice is a touch heavier; manage stake size.

Bet responsibly. Prices move. Re-check status on all questionable players before placing props.

Chicago brings a defense built for money downs and takeaways. That travels. The Bears also have a scheme that can produce chunk gains through the air. That matters against a Bengals secondary that has leaked explosives.

Cincinnati’s counter is red-zone strength and star power if Joe Flacco is active. If he plays, Ja’Marr Chase remains the stress point. If he does not, the Bengals need balance, quick game, and a few timely fourth-down calls to stay ahead of the sticks.

The market sits near Bears -3 with a total around 51.5. The case for Chicago is cleaner if at least two of Rome Odunze, DJ Moore, and Cole Kmet suit up. The case for Cincinnati improves sharply if Flacco is cleared and Trey Hendrickson can affect protection.

Bottom line: slight lean to Bears -3.0 at plus money, with an eye on late injury reports. The over is live if the Bengals’ key pass-game pieces are in.