Ben Johnson comes back to Ford Field, this time leading the Bears. Dan Campbell’s Lions need a response after a flat opener. The building will be loud, and both teams are trying to avoid 0–2.
Kickoff is Sunday, 1:00 PM ET at Ford Field in Detroit.

On paper, Chicago brings a real pass-rush edge. The Bears convert pressures into sacks at a 13.6% rate (94th percentile, small sample). That matters with Detroit’s left tackle Taylor Decker listed Questionable and several backup tackles on IR. If the pocket gets muddy, Jared Goff may have to live underneath.

Detroit still has playmakers. But without Johnson calling plays, the Lions’ explosive pass rate sits at just 2.4% (9th percentile). That fits a game script where Amon-Ra St. Brown works short and intermediate and the backs handle checkdowns. Chicago can answer with shots: the Bears’ deep explosive rate is 8.1% (75th percentile, small sample), and Detroit has allowed 13.6% explosive passes so far.

The spread menu is wide, but our anchor lands at Lions -3.5 (-159) with a total of 48.5 (Over +106 / Under -149). Juice (the fee embedded in the price) is heavy on several options, so line shopping matters.

• Bears pressure → sacks: 13.6% pressure-to-sack (94th pct; small sample).

• Lions passing explosives lag: 2.4% explosive pass rate (9th pct).

• Bears have a deep shot gear: 8.1% deep explosive rate (75th pct; small sample).

• Detroit’s O-line health is a real factor: LT Taylor Decker is Questionable; multiple tackle/guard depth pieces are on IR.

• Chicago secondary volatility: Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon are both Questionable.

• Red zone note: Bears’ defence has allowed TDs on 66.7% of red-zone trips (small sample).

This is a high-emotion spot: Johnson’s return, Campbell’s “must-win” tone, and a noisy building. The matchup tilts toward Chicago’s pass rush against a banged-up Detroit line, which could push the Lions into a shorter, possession game.

Detroit still has the higher floor at home. St. Brown’s route volume and a two-back punch can steady the offence, even if the explosives aren’t there yet. Chicago’s shot plays are the swing factor; if they land two or three, the Bears cover plenty of numbers.

Our card keeps it simple: Lions to win, a cautious lean to -3.5 as the anchor spread, and an Under lean at the 48.5 anchor total because of Detroit’s explosive-play dip and Chicago’s third-down defence. For props, we prefer Amon-Ra receptions and Montgomery TD at a plus number, while fading Goff’s passing yards in case the rush gets home.