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DET
CHI
Game Preview
Ben Johnson comes back to Ford Field, this time leading the Bears. Dan Campbell’s Lions need a response after a flat opener. The building will be loud, and both teams are trying to avoid 0–2.
Kickoff is Sunday, 1:00 PM ET at Ford Field in Detroit.
On paper, Chicago brings a real pass-rush edge. The Bears convert pressures into sacks at a 13.6% rate (94th percentile, small sample). That matters with Detroit’s left tackle Taylor Decker listed Questionable and several backup tackles on IR. If the pocket gets muddy, Jared Goff may have to live underneath.
Detroit still has playmakers. But without Johnson calling plays, the Lions’ explosive pass rate sits at just 2.4% (9th percentile). That fits a game script where Amon-Ra St. Brown works short and intermediate and the backs handle checkdowns. Chicago can answer with shots: the Bears’ deep explosive rate is 8.1% (75th percentile, small sample), and Detroit has allowed 13.6% explosive passes so far.
The spread menu is wide, but our anchor lands at Lions -3.5 (-159) with a total of 48.5 (Over +106 / Under -149). Juice (the fee embedded in the price) is heavy on several options, so line shopping matters.
Current Season Form
DET
AwayCHI
HomeHead-to-Head Summary
Past Results
| Date | Opponent | Result | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-07 | @ GB | L 13-27 | L 1.5 | u48.5 |
| 2025-01-18 | vs WAS | L 31-45 | L 8.5 | o55.5 |
| 2025-01-05 | vs MIN | W 31-9 | W +3.0 | u56.5 |
| 2024-12-30 | @ SF | W 40-34 | W +-4.0 | o50.5 |
| 2024-12-22 | @ CHI | W 34-17 | W +-7.0 | o47.5 |
| 2024-12-15 | vs BUF | L 42-48 | L 2.5 | o55.5 |
| 2024-12-05 | vs GB | W 34-31 | W +3.0 | o53.0 |
| 2024-11-28 | vs CHI | W 23-20 | W +9.5 | u47.5 |
| 2024-11-24 | @ IND | W 24-6 | W +-7.0 | u50.5 |
| 2024-11-17 | vs JAX | W 52-6 | W +14.0 | o47.5 |
Key Insights
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Bears pressure → sacks: 13.6% pressure-to-sack (94th pct; small sample).
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Lions passing explosives lag: 2.4% explosive pass rate (9th pct).
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Bears have a deep shot gear: 8.1% deep explosive rate (75th pct; small sample).
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Detroit’s O-line health is a real factor: LT Taylor Decker is Questionable; multiple tackle/guard depth pieces are on IR.
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Chicago secondary volatility: Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon are both Questionable.
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Red zone note: Bears’ defence has allowed TDs on 66.7% of red-zone trips (small sample).
Betting Insights
Spread (anchor): Lean Lions -3.5 (-159). Home edge + Chicago CB injuries + Lions urgency. Price is rich; manage stake size.
Total (anchor): Lean Under 48.5 (-149). Lions’ low explosive pass rate (2.4%) and Chicago’s strong third-down stops (72.7%, 91st pct) point to some drive stalls.
Moneyline: Lions (-278). If you don’t want to lay the hook at -3.5, ML reduces variance but at a premium.
Team Totals: Small lean Bears Over 20.0 (-116) if CHI hits a couple of deep shots vs DET’s 13.6% explosive passes allowed; variance is high.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 6.5 receptions (-108): volume path if DET sticks short vs CHI rush.
David Montgomery Over 0.5 rushing TD (+162): plus price against a defence allowing a 66.7% red-zone TD rate (small sample).
Final Summary
This is a high-emotion spot: Johnson’s return, Campbell’s “must-win” tone, and a noisy building. The matchup tilts toward Chicago’s pass rush against a banged-up Detroit line, which could push the Lions into a shorter, possession game.
Detroit still has the higher floor at home. St. Brown’s route volume and a two-back punch can steady the offence, even if the explosives aren’t there yet. Chicago’s shot plays are the swing factor; if they land two or three, the Bears cover plenty of numbers.
Our card keeps it simple: Lions to win, a cautious lean to -3.5 as the anchor spread, and an Under lean at the 48.5 anchor total because of Detroit’s explosive-play dip and Chicago’s third-down defence. For props, we prefer Amon-Ra receptions and Montgomery TD at a plus number, while fading Goff’s passing yards in case the rush gets home.
Statistical Battle Boards
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Points | 24 | #11 | 27 | #6 | |
| Total Points Per Game | 24 | #11 | 27 | #27 | |
| Total Touchdowns | 2 | #21 | 3 | #24 | |
| Passing Touchdowns | 1 | #24 | 2 | #25 | |
| Rushing Touchdowns | 1 | #17 | 1 | #19 | |
| Other Touchdowns | 0 | #23 | 0 | #31 | |
| Total Kicking Points | 6 | #23 | 9 | #10 | |
| Total Two Point Conversions | 0 | #25 | 0 | #10 | |
| Kick Extra Points | 3 | #5 | 3 | #5 | 🏈 |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Passing Yards | 198 | #16 | 188 | #18 | |
| Net Passing Yards Per Game | 198 | #16 | 188 | #18 | |
| Passer Rating | 86.6 | #21 | 129 | #4 | |
| Passing Attempts | 35 | #11 | 22 | #3 | |
| Completions | 21 | #15 | 16 | #26 | |
| Completion Percentage | 60 | #27 | 72.7 | #25 | |
| Passing 1st downs | 10 | #15 | 8 | #7 | |
| Passing 1st Down % | 50 | #22 | 57.1 | #17 | |
| Longest Pass | 31 | #19 | 48 | #5 | |
| Passing Fumbles Lost | 1 | #4 | 0 | #32 | |
| Receiving Targets | 34 | #10 | 22 | #28 | |
| Receptions | 21 | #15 | 16 | #5 | |
| Receiving Yards After Catch | 77 | #20 | 39 | #1 | |
| YAC Average | 3.7 | #23 | 2.4 | #1 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 119 | #12 | 78 | #11 | |
| Rushing Yards Per Game | 119 | #12 | 78 | #22 | |
| Rushing Attempts | 26 | #14 | 25 | #14 | 🏈 |
| Yards Per Rush Attempt | 4.6 | #11 | 3.1 | #25 | |
| Rushing 1st downs | 7 | #12 | 4 | #9 | |
| 20+ Yard Rushing Plays | 0 | #32 | 0 | #30 | |
| Long Rushing | 13 | #24 | 15 | #17 | |
| Rushing Fumbles | 0 | #32 | 0 | #30 | |
| Rushing Fumbles Lost | 0 | #24 | 0 | #9 | |
Game Preview of Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions. Week 2 of 2025 NFL Season
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