• Bears pressure → sacks: 13.6% pressure-to-sack (94th pct; small sample).

• Lions passing explosives lag: 2.4% explosive pass rate (9th pct).

• Bears have a deep shot gear: 8.1% deep explosive rate (75th pct; small sample).

• Detroit’s O-line health is a real factor: LT Taylor Decker is Questionable; multiple tackle/guard depth pieces are on IR.

• Chicago secondary volatility: Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon are both Questionable.

• Red zone note: Bears’ defence has allowed TDs on 66.7% of red-zone trips (small sample).

• Spread (anchor): Lean Lions -3.5 (-159). Home edge + Chicago CB injuries + Lions urgency. Price is rich; manage stake size.

• Total (anchor): Lean Under 48.5 (-149). Lions’ low explosive pass rate (2.4%) and Chicago’s strong third-down stops (72.7%, 91st pct) point to some drive stalls.

• Moneyline: Lions (-278). If you don’t want to lay the hook at -3.5, ML reduces variance but at a premium.

• Team Totals: Small lean Bears Over 20.0 (-116) if CHI hits a couple of deep shots vs DET’s 13.6% explosive passes allowed; variance is high.

• Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 6.5 receptions (-108): volume path if DET sticks short vs CHI rush.

• David Montgomery Over 0.5 rushing TD (+162): plus price against a defence allowing a 66.7% red-zone TD rate (small sample).

This is a high-emotion spot: Johnson’s return, Campbell’s “must-win” tone, and a noisy building. The matchup tilts toward Chicago’s pass rush against a banged-up Detroit line, which could push the Lions into a shorter, possession game.

Detroit still has the higher floor at home. St. Brown’s route volume and a two-back punch can steady the offence, even if the explosives aren’t there yet. Chicago’s shot plays are the swing factor; if they land two or three, the Bears cover plenty of numbers.

Our card keeps it simple: Lions to win, a cautious lean to -3.5 as the anchor spread, and an Under lean at the 48.5 anchor total because of Detroit’s explosive-play dip and Chicago’s third-down defence. For props, we prefer Amon-Ra receptions and Montgomery TD at a plus number, while fading Goff’s passing yards in case the rush gets home.