• Bears offense is built on explosives.
  Chicago ranks in the top 20 percent of the league in explosive pass rate (8.3 percent) and explosive run rate (4.6 percent), with a strong mix of play-action and under-center looks.

• Eagles struggle to limit chunk passes.
  Philadelphia’s defense allows explosive passes on 8.3 percent of attempts, a bottom-tier mark, and that combines with a middling pressure-to-sack rate to open windows for downfield throws.

• Chicago’s defense wins on third down and with takeaways.
  The Bears own an elite 62.1 percent third-down stop rate and a league-best 3.4 percent turnover generation rate, forcing opponents to be patient and precise.

• Eagles offense is strong in the red zone but weak on third down.
  Philadelphia converts 77.8 percent of red zone trips into touchdowns (best in the league) but has a poor 35.3 percent third-down conversion rate, which helps explain their streaky drives.

• Run game matchup favors Philly if healthy.
  The Eagles’ explosive run rate sits at 4.5 percent (top tier), while the Bears rank near the bottom in explosive runs allowed (4.5 percent), a concern given Chicago’s depleted linebacker group.

• Injuries could swing the coverage battle.
  Chicago lists several starting defensive backs as Questionable or Out, while Philadelphia’s top receivers (A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith) carry Questionable tags. Whoever actually suits up will tilt the advantage in the passing game.

• Side: Bears catching a full touchdown in a tight statistical matchup.
  With the line around Eagles -7 (Bears +7 at roughly -105, Eagles -7 at roughly -108), Chicago’s elite turnover rate and explosive-play profile give them live backdoor and upset paths if Williams hits a few deep shots.

• Total: Market sitting just below the mid-40s.
  The main total is clustered around 44 (Over -118, Under -114). Chicago plays fast in terms of plays per minute and both teams lean into explosives, but Bears red zone defense and some offensive injuries create real under risk if drives stall for field goals.

• Team totals mirror a 26–18 type script.
  Eagles are lined around 26 to 27 points (Over 26.5 about -112; Under 26.5 about -127). Bears sit in the 17 to 19.5 range (Over 17.5 -110, Under 17.5 -130, with Over 19.5 at +110). That lines up with Philly’s red zone edge but still respects Chicago’s defense.

• Quarterback passing props are modest for this matchup.
  Jalen Hurts is set at 209.5 passing yards with both sides near -120, and Caleb Williams is at 211.5 (Over -120, Under -167). Given Chicago’s explosive pass rate and Philly’s issues against deep throws, Williams overs will attract interest, but weather, pace and Fangio’s shell add variance.

• Star skill props carry upside but health risk.
  A.J. Brown’s receiving line (60.5 yards, Over -119) and Saquon Barkley’s rushing line (78.5 yards, Over -120) both sit in spots that make sense against Chicago’s weak explosive-pass and explosive-run defense, but both players are Questionable, so bettors are taking on extra injury risk.

• Hurts rushing and TD props tie directly to red zone dominance.
  Hurts’ rushing line is 31.5 yards (Over -123) and his anytime TD price sits around -150. Those numbers are rich, but Philadelphia’s league-best 77.8 percent red zone TD rate and his goal-line usage explain the aggressive pricing.

This game sets up like a playoff dry run for both teams. The Eagles are the more proven roster and the market favorite at -7, but the Bears bring real volatility and upside with their explosive offense. Caleb Williams has thrived even when his completion rate has dipped, because Chicago hits big plays and avoids interceptions. That style matches up well with an Eagles defense that has allowed more chunk passes than it would like.

On the other side, Philadelphia’s offense has been inconsistent on early downs and third down, yet very sharp in the red zone. If the Eagles can run the ball and stay ahead of the chains, their 77.8 percent red zone TD rate gives them a clear scoring edge. Chicago’s depleted linebacker group and leaky explosive-run numbers make that a real possibility if Barkley and the offensive line are close to full strength.

The wild card is health. Many of the key names in the passing game and along both lines are listed as Questionable. That injects a lot of uncertainty into both props and side totals. Bettors who lean on player overs tied to those stars should be comfortable with late news and the chance of limited snaps.

Overall, this profiles as a game where the Eagles win more often, but the Bears are dangerous enough to keep it close and crack the total if they finish drives. Chicago’s ability to create turnovers and hit explosives makes them a live underdog at +7. The safest angle may be to frame any exposure around how you think the injury news breaks and whether you trust Philadelphia to sustain drives against one of the best situational defenses in the league.