• Lions scheme big plays better than anyone.
  Detroit ranks first in the league in scheme-based explosive plays, meaning their offense often creates big gains by design, not just broken coverage. That matters against a Dallas defense that does not generate many takeaways.

• Cowboys offense stays on the field.
  Dallas converts about 48 percent of its third downs, one of the top rates in the NFL. That ability to extend drives can wear down a Lions defense that has been strong in overall third down stops but is thin at several positions due to injuries.

• Detroit’s defense is built to stop the run, not the deep ball.
  The Lions allow explosive runs at only 1.8 percent of carries, an elite mark, but they struggle badly against deep passes. That profile fits a Dallas attack that wants to push the ball downfield when Prescott and his receivers are healthy.

• Dallas defense has trouble in the red zone and short yardage.
  The Cowboys allow touchdowns on about 60 percent of red-zone trips and are near the bottom of the league in stopping third-and-short. That sets up chances for Detroit backs like Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery to finish drives if the line holds up.

• Injuries may reshape both game plans.
  Detroit’s offensive line has several starters and key backups listed as Questionable or on injured reserve, which could force quicker throws and more screens. Dallas has cluster injuries in the secondary, which makes it harder to survive against Detroit’s scheme-driven explosives if the pass rush does not get home.

• Market sees Lions as small home favorites.
  Detroit sits around -3 (-110) on the spread, with Dallas at +3 (-102). That prices this as a close game where home field and maybe the injury news tilt slightly toward the Lions, not a huge talent gap.

• Total in the mid-50s fits both offenses’ explosive profiles.
  The main number is around 54.0 with Over -115 and Under -103. A fast-paced Dallas offense and a scheme-heavy Detroit attack in a dome explain the high total, but the juice on the Over reminds you that you are paying for that excitement.

• Moneyline shows modest edge toward Detroit.
  The Lions are about -164 on the moneyline, with the Cowboys at +148. That suggests the market leans to Detroit winning more often than not, but still leaves room for Dallas to pull an upset if Dak and the receivers are close to full strength.

• Dak and Goff passing props reflect a shootout script.
  Jared Goff’s passing line sits at 256.5 yards with both sides near -120, while Dak Prescott is at 272.5 yards at similar prices. Books are already expecting solid volume and efficiency through the air; injuries to either quarterback or key wideouts would add a lot of variance here.

• Skill-position props lean into explosives and matchups.
  CeeDee Lamb’s receiving prop of 80.5 yards at about -119 each way reflects trust in Dak’s connection with his top target against a banged-up Lions secondary. On the other side, Jahmyr Gibbs brings a 37.5 receiving yards line and a 77.5 rushing yards line, showing the market expects Detroit to lean on him as both a runner and receiver. Remember he is central to the Lions’ win-loss pattern when his rushing efficiency spikes.

• Team totals mirror a high-scoring, Lions-lean game.
  Detroit’s team total is around 28.5–29 points, while Dallas sits near 24.5 points. That aligns with the full-game spread and total and suggests a median script with the Lions reaching four touchdowns and Dallas in the mid-20s, though red-zone volatility can swing either side of those numbers.

Always keep in mind that props and totals are sensitive to late injury news. With so many key players listed as Questionable, building in some room for surprise outcomes is key.

This Week 14 showdown at Ford Field should feel like a playoff dress rehearsal. The Lions are in a near must-win spot to keep their seeding on track, while the Cowboys are trying to prove their hot streak against top opponents is real away from home. The market sees Detroit as a small favorite, but not by enough to rule out a tight, one-score finish.

On the field, the biggest tension is between Detroit’s scheme-heavy explosive offense and a Cowboys defense that has not made many game-changing plays this season. Dallas wins on offense by staying ahead of the sticks and converting third downs, while Detroit is happy to score quickly with shot plays and yards after the catch. Both styles can thrive in a dome with no weather issues.

Injuries may ultimately decide whether this turns into the track meet the total suggests or something more grindy. If Prescott, Lamb, and the core of the Cowboys line are all close to full speed, Dallas has a real chance to stress a thin Lions secondary. If Detroit’s offensive line can hold together, Jared Goff should find opportunities downfield and in the screen game, especially with Gibbs.

For bettors, the matchup offers a lot of angles but also a lot of moving pieces. The spread, total, and key props all assume reasonably healthy rosters. Keeping an eye on late injury reports for both teams, especially at quarterback, wide receiver, and offensive line, will be crucial before locking in any positions.