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NYJ
DAL
Game Preview
The Dallas Cowboys visit the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET. The market sits Dallas -3 (-106) with a total at 47.0 (Over -123, Under -109).
This matchup rides on two levers: the Jets’ run game and Dallas’ passing efficiency. New York leads the league in explosive rush rate at 10.9%. Explosive plays are gains of 10-plus yards on the ground and 15-plus through the air. Dallas answers with a strong deep-ball profile at 5.8% explosive rate on deep throws.
Injuries shape both sides. The Cowboys are without CeeDee Lamb and have key linemen listed as questionable. The Jets list QB Justin Fields as questionable with a concussion. Their RB room is thin behind Breece Hall, and the offensive line has multiple absences.
Coaching pressure is real for New York, but the data points to on-field matchups. If the Jets run game wins early downs, they can keep Dallas off the field. If Dak Prescott keeps chains moving, Dallas can lean into long drives and stress a Jets secondary with several players on the report.
Current Season Form
NYJ
AwayDAL
HomeHead-to-Head Summary
Past Results
| Date | Opponent | Result | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-29 | @ MIA | L 21-27 | L 2.5 | o44.5 |
| 2025-09-21 | @ TB | L 27-29 | L 6.5 | o43.5 |
| 2025-09-14 | vs BUF | L 10-30 | L -6.0 | u47.5 |
| 2025-09-07 | vs PIT | L 32-34 | L -3.0 | o37.5 |
| 2025-01-05 | vs MIA | W 32-20 | W +1.5 | o39.5 |
| 2024-12-29 | @ BUF | L 14-40 | L 10.0 | o44.5 |
| 2024-12-22 | vs LAR | L 9-19 | L -3.0 | u47.0 |
| 2024-12-15 | @ JAX | W 32-25 | W +-3.5 | o41.5 |
| 2024-12-08 | @ MIA | L 26-32 | L 6.5 | o45.0 |
| 2024-12-01 | vs SEA | L 21-26 | L 1.0 | o41.5 |
Key Insights
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Jets can pop runs: New York owns a 10.9% explosive run rate (100th percentile). That is their clearest path to steady offense.
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Dallas can still hit shot plays: Cowboys post a 5.8% deep-pass explosive rate (81st percentile). The Jets allow explosive passes at 12.0% raw, though personnel is banged up.
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Dak sustains drives: Dallas ranks 93.3% in long-drive efficiency (91st percentile), which points to patience if the deep ball stalls. Small sample note: these are early-season drive counts.
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Money downs are a hinge: Cowboys convert 44.7% on third down (88th). Their defense stops only 41.8% on third down (3rd percentile), so the Jets’ 31.1% conversion weakness could get a lift.
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Pass rush vs scramble lanes: Dallas converts pressures to sacks at only 2.9% (16th percentile). If Fields plays, that lighter finish rate can fuel QB scrambles.
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Injury tie-ins: With Lamb Out, Dallas target share tilts to tight ends and secondary WRs. The Jets’ RB room behind Hall is thin, which can concentrate carries if game script allows.
Betting Insights
Anchor spread: Cowboys -3.0 (-106). Short road favorite in a one-score profile.
Anchor total: 47.0 (Over -123, Under -109). The Over is juiced, but inactives can swing this.
Moneyline check: Cowboys -135 vs Jets +118. Pricing reflects slight Dallas edge.
Cowboys team total: Over 24.0 (-123). Matches Dallas’ long-drive strength and Jets’ banged-up secondary.
Jets team total: Over 23.0 (-116). Correlates with New York’s No. 1 explosive rush rate.
Player props to monitor:
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Breece Hall Over 66.5 rush yds (-122) aligns with that 10.9% explosive run rate.
Justin Fields Over 47.5 rush yds (-118) if active, given Dallas’ low pressure-to-sack finish (2.9%).
Garrett Wilson Over 64.5 rec yds (-118) vs Dallas’ 8.7% explosive passes allowed.
Jake Ferguson Over 43.5 rec yds (-118) with Lamb Out and target consolidation.
Final Summary
The numbers point to a simple script. The Jets want to run. Dallas wants to string together long drives and take selective shots.
New York’s edge is on the ground with Breece Hall. If Fields plays, his legs add another layer. Dallas counters with Dak’s efficiency and a pass game that can still find chunk gains, even without CeeDee Lamb.
Injuries make this volatile. The Cowboys’ offensive line health matters for any Dak or team-total angles. The Jets’ QB status and DB availability can swing both side and total.
Bottom line: the market has this right as a tight, high-40s total. If the Jets rip explosives on the ground, they can trade scores. If Dallas owns third down again, the visitors justify the -3.
Statistical Battle Boards
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Points | 114 | #5 | 120 | #4 | |
| Total Points Per Game | 28.5 | #5 | 30 | #28 | |
| Total Touchdowns | 12 | #10 | 11 | #18 | |
| Passing Touchdowns | 6 | #18 | 7 | #22 | |
| Rushing Touchdowns | 6 | #5 | 4 | #19 | |
| Other Touchdowns | 0 | #30 | 0 | #8 | |
| Total Kicking Points | 38 | #3 | 48 | #1 | |
| Total Two Point Conversions | 1 | #3 | 0 | #15 | |
| Kick Extra Points | 11 | #8 | 12 | #5 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Passing Yards | 1125 | #1 | 799 | #19 | |
| Net Passing Yards Per Game | 281 | #1 | 200 | #19 | |
| Passer Rating | 92.3 | #16 | 109 | #4 | |
| Passing Attempts | 171 | #1 | 111 | #6 | |
| Completions | 124 | #1 | 73 | #28 | |
| Completion Percentage | 72.5 | #3 | 65.8 | #17 | |
| Passing 1st downs | 58 | #2 | 47 | #22 | |
| Passing 1st Down % | 56.3 | #13 | 57.3 | #18 | |
| Longest Pass | 37 | #29 | 32 | #32 | |
| Passing Fumbles Lost | 0 | #27 | 0 | #19 | |
| Receiving Targets | 167 | #1 | 107 | #27 | |
| Receptions | 124 | #1 | 73 | #6 | |
| Receiving Yards After Catch | 475 | #9 | 507 | #29 | |
| YAC Average | 3.8 | #30 | 6.9 | #32 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 492 | #12 | 522 | #25 | |
| Rushing Yards Per Game | 123 | #12 | 130 | #8 | |
| Rushing Attempts | 96 | #23 | 128 | #32 | |
| Yards Per Rush Attempt | 5.1 | #4 | 4.1 | #18 | |
| Rushing 1st downs | 29 | #12 | 23 | #13 | |
| 20+ Yard Rushing Plays | 3 | #10 | 4 | #5 | |
| Long Rushing | 49 | #10 | 44 | #14 | |
| Rushing Fumbles | 3 | #10 | 4 | #5 | |
| Rushing Fumbles Lost | 2 | #4 | 0 | #30 | |
Game Preview of Dallas Cowboys @ New York Jets. Week 5 of 2025 NFL Season
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