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WSH
DAL
Game Preview
Dallas and Washington get the Christmas Day spotlight at Northwest Stadium. Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET in Week 17.
The betting market says Dallas should control it. The Cowboys sit -6.5 (-175) with a 50.5 total (Over -101, Under -109). Dallas also carries a heavy moneyline at -435, which tells you the upset price is real at +370.
The biggest shift from the pregame chatter is Washington’s quarterback spot. Marcus Mariota is out, and the injury report also lists Jayden Daniels out. That points to Josh Johnson driving the offense. Washington also loses LT Laremy Tunsil, which can force quicker throws and more checkdowns.
Dallas has its own issues, but the profile still screams pace. The Cowboys rank elite in Plays Per Minute (112%, 98th percentile). More plays usually means more chances to score. The question is whether Dallas finishes drives with touchdowns or settles for kicks, because their red-zone touchdown rate sits at 50.8% (31st percentile).
Current Season Form
WSH
AwayDAL
HomeHead-to-Head Summary
Past Results
| Date | Opponent | Result | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-20 | vs PHI | L 18-29 | L -7.0 | o43.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | @ NYG | W 29-21 | W +2.5 | o46.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | @ MIN | L 0-31 | L -1.5 | u43.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | vs DEN | L 26-27 | L -6.5 | o43.5 |
| 2025-11-16 | @ MIA | L 13-16 | L 2.5 | u47.5 |
| 2025-11-09 | vs DET | L 22-44 | L -8.5 | o49.5 |
| 2025-11-02 | vs SEA | L 14-38 | L -2.5 | o47.5 |
| 2025-10-27 | @ KC | L 7-28 | L 10.5 | u48.5 |
| 2025-10-19 | @ DAL | L 22-44 | L 1.5 | o54.5 |
| 2025-10-13 | vs CHI | L 24-25 | W +5.5 | u49.5 |
Key Insights
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Dallas plays fast: 112% plays per minute (98th percentile). That can raise total possessions.
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Dallas stays on the field: 45.3% third-down conversion (81st percentile).
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Dallas can hit explosives through the air: 5.2% deep-pass explosive rate (73rd percentile).
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Dallas can also pop big runs: 4.5% explosive run rate (73rd percentile).
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Dallas defense has trouble getting stops when it matters: 62.5% red-zone TDs allowed (9th percentile) and a weak third-down stop profile.
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Washington’s plan changes with injuries: Mariota out and Tunsil out likely mean faster decisions, more designed help, and fewer long-developing shots.
Betting Insights
Over 50.5 (-101) fits Dallas’ pace: 112% plays per minute (98th percentile). More snaps can push scoring even if drives are not perfect.
Cowboys -6.5 (-175) lines up with the QB gap plus market support: Dallas is -435 on the moneyline while Washington is +370.
Dak Prescott over 275.5 pass yards (-119) pairs with Dallas’ chunk-play profile: 5.2% deep-pass explosives (73rd percentile) in an offense that pushes tempo.
CeeDee Lamb over 82.5 receiving (-118) matches the same idea: pace plus a solid explosive pass rate (7.4%) can get him there on volume and splash plays.
Javonte Williams anytime TD (-147) makes sense if Dallas leans run near the goal line, and Washington is missing DT Daron Payne (Out).
Josh Johnson over 18.5 rushing (-119) is a situational look only if he starts. Dallas has a low pressure-to-sack conversion (5.3%), which can leave escape lanes.
Final Summary
This game sets up as a pace-driven matchup. Dallas runs a fast offense and usually creates more total plays than most teams. That matters on a high total like 50.5, where one extra touchdown can flip the bet.
Washington’s injuries steer the handicap. With Mariota out and Tunsil out, the Commanders may lean on quick throws, screens, and quarterback movement. That can still score, but it also increases the risk of stalled drives.
For Dallas, the cleanest story is opportunity. The Cowboys convert 45.3% on third down, and they can create explosives both passing and running. The main worry is finishing drives, since their red-zone touchdown rate is only 50.8%.
If you bet it, keep your risk tight. Big spreads and big totals bring variance fast. Also remember the “juice” on prices like -175 means you have to risk more to win less, so shop for the best number you can and do not chase if the line moves against you.
Statistical Battle Boards
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Points | 320 | #4 | 296 | #5 | |
| Total Points Per Game | 29.1 | #4 | 26.9 | #28 | |
| Total Touchdowns | 36 | #6 | 32 | #26 | |
| Passing Touchdowns | 24 | #3 | 22 | #29 | |
| Rushing Touchdowns | 11 | #16 | 10 | #18 | |
| Other Touchdowns | 1 | #17 | 0 | #8 | |
| Total Kicking Points | 92 | #8 | 94 | #5 | |
| Total Two Point Conversions | 1 | #12 | 2 | #13 | |
| Kick Extra Points | 35 | #4 | 28 | #9 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Passing Yards | 2935 | #3 | 2744 | #5 | |
| Net Passing Yards Per Game | 267 | #1 | 250 | #4 | |
| Passer Rating | 102 | #7 | 112 | #1 | |
| Passing Attempts | 407 | #4 | 328 | #9 | |
| Completions | 282 | #3 | 223 | #20 | |
| Completion Percentage | 69.3 | #3 | 68 | #25 | |
| Passing 1st downs | 151 | #2 | 137 | #27 | |
| Passing 1st Down % | 59.0 | #10 | 58.5 | #26 | |
| Longest Pass | 74 | #8 | 74 | #7 | |
| Passing Fumbles Lost | 3 | #8 | 1 | #27 | |
| Receiving Targets | 397 | #3 | 311 | #24 | |
| Receptions | 282 | #3 | 223 | #13 | |
| Receiving Yards After Catch | 1306 | #8 | 1517 | #31 | |
| YAC Average | 4.6 | #27 | 6.8 | #31 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 1325 | #13 | 1513 | #27 | |
| Rushing Yards Per Game | 120 | #12 | 138 | #6 | |
| Rushing Attempts | 289 | #20 | 321 | #26 | |
| Yards Per Rush Attempt | 4.6 | #10 | 4.7 | #7 | |
| Rushing 1st downs | 75 | #16 | 80 | #21 | |
| 20+ Yard Rushing Plays | 7 | #13 | 6 | #15 | |
| Long Rushing | 66 | #8 | 43 | #23 | |
| Rushing Fumbles | 7 | #13 | 6 | #15 | |
| Rushing Fumbles Lost | 3 | #3 | 0 | #25 | |
Game Preview of Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders. Week 17 of 2025 NFL Season
Frequently Asked Questions
