• Dallas plays fast: 112% plays per minute (98th percentile). That can raise total possessions.

• Dallas stays on the field: 45.3% third-down conversion (81st percentile).

• Dallas can hit explosives through the air: 5.2% deep-pass explosive rate (73rd percentile).

• Dallas can also pop big runs: 4.5% explosive run rate (73rd percentile).

• Dallas defense has trouble getting stops when it matters: 62.5% red-zone TDs allowed (9th percentile) and a weak third-down stop profile.

• Washington’s plan changes with injuries: Mariota out and Tunsil out likely mean faster decisions, more designed help, and fewer long-developing shots.

• Over 50.5 (-101) fits Dallas’ pace: 112% plays per minute (98th percentile). More snaps can push scoring even if drives are not perfect.

• Cowboys -6.5 (-175) lines up with the QB gap plus market support: Dallas is -435 on the moneyline while Washington is +370.

• Dak Prescott over 275.5 pass yards (-119) pairs with Dallas’ chunk-play profile: 5.2% deep-pass explosives (73rd percentile) in an offense that pushes tempo.

• CeeDee Lamb over 82.5 receiving (-118) matches the same idea: pace plus a solid explosive pass rate (7.4%) can get him there on volume and splash plays.

• Javonte Williams anytime TD (-147) makes sense if Dallas leans run near the goal line, and Washington is missing DT Daron Payne (Out).

• Josh Johnson over 18.5 rushing (-119) is a situational look only if he starts. Dallas has a low pressure-to-sack conversion (5.3%), which can leave escape lanes.

This game sets up as a pace-driven matchup. Dallas runs a fast offense and usually creates more total plays than most teams. That matters on a high total like 50.5, where one extra touchdown can flip the bet.

Washington’s injuries steer the handicap. With Mariota out and Tunsil out, the Commanders may lean on quick throws, screens, and quarterback movement. That can still score, but it also increases the risk of stalled drives.

For Dallas, the cleanest story is opportunity. The Cowboys convert 45.3% on third down, and they can create explosives both passing and running. The main worry is finishing drives, since their red-zone touchdown rate is only 50.8%.

If you bet it, keep your risk tight. Big spreads and big totals bring variance fast. Also remember the “juice” on prices like -175 means you have to risk more to win less, so shop for the best number you can and do not chase if the line moves against you.