• Green Bay’s offense lives on chunk throws: 9.5% Explosive Pass Rate (92nd percentile) on the season.

• Chicago’s defense is a takeaway machine: 3.5% Turnover Generation Rate (100th percentile).

• The Packers extend drives even when behind the sticks: 38.4% Third and Long Conversion (100th percentile).

• The Bears run a faster operation: 111% Plays Per Minute (94th percentile), which can raise total play volume.

• Green Bay’s defense limits big passes: 5.4% Expl Pass Allowed (91st percentile), making sustained drives more important for Chicago.

• Chicago’s offense leans under center: 61.2% Under Center Tendency (88th percentile), which can shape early-down play calling.

• Bears -3 (+102) is the clean “field goal” look if you want Chicago. It lines up with the Bears’ elite takeaway rate (3.5%, 100th percentile) in a game expected to be close.

• If you prefer Green Bay, the cheaper “buy” is Packers +3 (-156). That juice is real, but it protects you on the key number in a one-score setup.

• Total 47 (Under -120 / Over -105): Chicago’s pace (94th percentile) pushes Over cases, while Green Bay limiting explosive passes (91st percentile) supports longer, slower drives.

• Caleb Williams Under 205.5 passing yards (-120): GB’s Expl Pass Allowed 5.4% (91st percentile) plus Chicago’s WR injuries create a thinner margin for big passing totals.

• DJ Moore Over 47.5 receiving yards (-119): With Odunze out, Moore can win on volume even if the explosive plays are harder to find.

• Josh Jacobs anytime TD (-167): This number screams “featured back,” but it only makes sense if he’s cleared and not limited (he’s Questionable, high impact).

This game prices like a grinder: Bears by about a field goal, total around 47. That makes sense when you stack the styles. Green Bay can hit chunk passes, but Chicago can flip games with takeaways.

If the Packers are close to full strength, their downfield profile gives them a real ceiling. But Watson and Jacobs sit right in the middle of the handicap. If either one is limited, Green Bay may need longer drives, and Chicago’s turnover edge gets louder.

For Chicago, the injuries at receiver tighten the plan. That can mean more DJ Moore usage, more tight ends, and more runs from under-center looks. If Kmet goes, his yardage line is low enough to matter, but his tag adds volatility.

No matter what side you play, respect the variance here. Rivalry games swing on one short field, one tipped ball, or one red-zone stop. Keep your stake size sane, especially if key Questionables end up active but clearly limited.