• Explosive passing clash

  • Green Bay’s passing offense is built on chunk plays, with a 10.1% explosive pass rate and 6.9% deep explosive rate. Detroit’s defense struggles in this area, allowing explosive passes on 8.3% of attempts. If the Packers receivers are healthy enough, they can test this secondary deep.

• Lions run defense vs Packers ground game

  • Detroit is strong against explosive runs, giving up chunk runs on only 1.7% of carries. Green Bay’s own explosive run rate sits at 3.4%, below average. If the Lions hold up up front even with line injuries, they can force the Packers into longer down and distance.

• Late down battle could swing the game

  • The Packers offense converts 48.6% of third downs and a league best 41.7% on third and long. The Lions defense counters with a 62.0% third down stop rate and an elite 63.3% stuff rate on third and short. Whoever wins this tug of war on third down will likely control pace and possession.

• Green Bay defense vs Detroit red zone and explosives

  • Packers defense is built to reduce big plays, with a 4.2% explosive pass allowed rate and strong numbers against explosive runs. Detroit, though, is number one in scheme based explosive rate at 4.9% and has a 24.5% big play touchdown rate on 20 plus yard gains. That sets up a classic strength on strength matchup.

• Red zone swing for Packers offense

  • In the red zone, Green Bay scores touchdowns on 54.2% of trips. Detroit’s defense allows TDs on 59.5% of red zone drives, one of the weaker marks in the league. If the Packers reach the 20 with any kind of frequency, they are set up to finish drives.

• Injury clouds on both sides

  • The Packers have major questions on the offensive line and at wide receiver, with multiple guards, tackles, and starting wideouts listed as Questionable or on injured reserve. The Lions are missing several offensive linemen and tight ends and have a banged up secondary with Kerby Joseph out and several corners and safeties Questionable. That depth concern could show up late in a high tempo game.

• Spread: Lions around a field goal favorite

  • The main handicap line sits near Lions -3.5 (+118) vs Packers +3.5 (-135), with a flatter Lions -3.0 (-102) also on the board. Detroit has been strong at home and owns a top tier explosive profile on offense, while Green Bay’s elite defense and coaching keep them in most games. With plus money on -3.5 and a cheaper -3.0, Lions backers may prefer the cleaner field goal number to reduce push and hook risk in what could be a tight divisional game.

• Total: market leans to a high scoring script

  • The full game total is anchored at 48.5, with Over at -101 and Under at -114. Detroit’s offense averages 29.6 points per game in the storylines and leads the league in scheme driven explosives, while Green Bay’s defense is top five in scoring allowed at 18.4 points per game. That creates a true clash. If you like the Over, you are betting on explosive plays winning out over the Packers structure. Under backers are relying on red zone stops and the long injury list on both offenses.

• Lions team total over 24.5 (-120)

  • Detroit’s team total sits at 24.5, with Over at -120. The Lions rank high in explosive pass rate (7.9%) and big play touchdown rate (24.5%), and they have gone over 100 rushing yards in all seven of their wins. If you think Gibbs and this scheme can still generate chunk plays against an elite defense, this is a way to isolate Lions scoring without picking a side.

• Jahmyr Gibbs over 73.5 rushing yards (-119)

  • Gibbs’ rushing line is 73.5 yards with Over at -119. He has piled up 951 rushing yards on 155 carries (6.1 yards per carry) this season and is coming off a 219 yard outburst. Green Bay has generally controlled explosives on the ground, but the Packers are 1-3-1 when they allow 100 plus rushing yards. This is a high ceiling but fair line in a game where Detroit will want to protect Goff and play off the run.

• David Montgomery over 37.5 rushing yards (-119)

  • Montgomery’s rushing line is 37.5 with Over at -119. Detroit leans heavily under center (62.8% of snaps) and uses Montgomery as the short yardage and clock killing back. Even if Gibbs handles the big plays, Montgomery can grind to 40 plus on early down and red zone carries, especially if the Lions play from ahead.

• Jordan Love under 230.5 passing yards (-119)

  • Love’s passing yard line is 230.5, with Under at -119. He has already posted four games under 200 yards in lower scoring, defense first scripts, and Green Bay enters this one with a very banged up receiver room and offensive line. Against a Lions front that generates sacks at a 7.0% rate and can get into his lap, the path to the Under is a run heavier plan and a few stalled drives.

• Amon-Ra St. Brown over 82.5 receiving yards (-119, only if active)

  • St. Brown’s receiving line is 82.5 yards with Over at -119. He is listed as Questionable, so this is a volatile prop. If he plays, he will likely command heavy volume in a scheme that ranks at 4.9% in scheme explosive rate and 7.9% in explosive pass rate. Even against a strong Packers defense, his route tree fits the intermediate areas where Detroit can still move the chains. Because of the health tag and price, this is more of a lean than a must play.

This Thanksgiving matchup gives us a classic NFC North clash with real stakes. Green Bay brings an elite, well rounded defense that limits explosive plays and gets off the field on third down. Detroit counters with one of the league’s most creative and aggressive offensive designs, powered by Jahmyr Gibbs’ breakout and a passing game that can still strike deep if the line holds up. The contrast in styles is sharp, and that tension should drive most of the key moments on Thursday.

On paper, the market has things about right. Detroit as a small home favorite near a field goal mirrors their high scoring profile and strong home form. Green Bay plus the points reflects respect for their defense, coaching, and ability to hit big pass plays even with a thinned out receiving corps. With so many Questionable tags on both sides, from Micah Parsons to Amon-Ra St. Brown to Josh Jacobs and multiple offensive linemen, bettors should expect late line movement and be ready to adjust.

From a betting angle, that argues for a measured approach. If you like Detroit, the safer way in is often the Lions team total or a flat minus three instead of chasing the hook. If you prefer Green Bay, leaning into alt spreads or correlated props like Love Unders and a tighter game script can make sense. Player props built around Gibbs and the Lions ground game line up with both the numbers and recent form, but you should price in variance, especially in a high emotion holiday spot where coaches may lean more on trusted stars and less on rotations.

However you play it, this is a matchup where edges are real but thin. The better path is to size positions appropriately, respect the volatility that comes with divisional games and long injury lists, and treat your bets as part of a full Thanksgiving card rather than a one game all in.