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PIT
GB
Game Preview
Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium, Sun, Oct. 26, 8:20 PM ET. It’s Jordan Love vs. Aaron Rodgers in a fresh setting. The reunion buzz is real, but the matchup data drives the handicap.
The Packers’ pass game is the feature. They create explosive throws (11.4%) and keep drives alive with elite third-down wins (49.4%). Pittsburgh’s defense still makes plays, yet it has allowed explosive passes (7.1%) and hasn’t always closed series.
Injuries matter. The Steelers are without Jaylen Warren, and C Zach Frazier is questionable. For Green Bay, Micah Parsons plus Tucker Kraft and Josh Jacobs are questionable. Those statuses shift pressure rates, red-zone plans, and pace.
Oddsmakers have Green Bay as a short road favorite with a mid-40s total. Both quarterbacks can move the ball. Finishing drives likely decides it.
Current Season Form
PIT
AwayGB
HomeHead-to-Head Summary
Past Results
| Date | Opponent | Result | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-16 | @ CIN | L 31-33 | W +-5.5 | o45.5 |
| 2025-10-12 | vs CLE | W 23-9 | W +5.5 | u37.5 |
| 2025-09-28 | vs MIN | W 24-21 | W +-2.5 | o41.5 |
| 2025-09-21 | @ NE | W 21-14 | W +-1.5 | u44.5 |
| 2025-09-14 | vs SEA | L 17-31 | L 3.5 | o40.5 |
| 2025-09-07 | @ NYJ | W 34-32 | W +-3.0 | o37.5 |
| 2025-01-11 | @ BAL | L 14-28 | L 9.5 | u44.5 |
| 2025-01-04 | vs CIN | L 17-19 | L -2.5 | u48.5 |
| 2024-12-25 | vs KC | L 10-29 | L -3.0 | u43.5 |
| 2024-12-21 | @ BAL | L 17-34 | L 7.0 | o44.5 |
Key Insights
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GB explosive pass rate: 11.4% (97th pctile) and third-down conversion 49.4% (100th) point to sustained volume for Love.
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PIT defense: allows 7.1% explosive passes (69th pctile) with a 57.0% third-down stop rate (28th), leaving room for long GB drives.
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GB pass defense limits big plays — 3.2% explosive passes allowed (94th pctile) — curbing PIT deep shots that already sit at 2.8% (12th).
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Steelers’ goal-line defense is elite: 73.7% goal-line stuff rate (100th pctile), which can force GB to scheme short yardage, especially if Jacobs is limited.
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Warren out nudges PIT toward Rodgers’ timing game; GB is elite vs explosive runs (0.8% allowed, 97th pctile).
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Multiple questionable tags (Parsons, Kraft, Jacobs; several PIT defenders) add small-sample volatility to snap counts and roles.
Betting Insights
Spread: Packers -3.5 (–101). GB’s money-down edge lines up with a short number; Parsons’ status is a variance lever.
Alt spread: Packers -3.0 (–119) if you want the key number, but note the extra juice.
Total: Over 46.0 (–110). GB drive sustain plus PIT’s likely pass rate supports possessions; red-zone finish is the swing factor.
Team totals: GB over 24.0 (–112); PIT over 20.5 (–119). Both mirror the market total; GB air explosiveness fits PIT’s coverage leaks.
Jordan Love Over 239.5 pass yds (–119): Third-down engine drives attempts and yards.
DK Metcalf Over 58.5 rec yds (–120): WR1 usage in a pass-forward game plan.
Romeo Doubs Over 52.5 rec yds (–118): Watson out concentrates targets.
Watchlist: Tucker Kraft Over 50.5 rec yds (–119) only if active — status check required.
Final Summary
The Packers’ consistency on money downs is the clearest edge. It fuels time of possession and creates more shots for explosives. That’s a tough ask for a Steelers defense that pressures well but has leaked chunk gains and hasn’t slammed the door on third down.
Pittsburgh still has Rodgers and a strong red-zone profile, but Warren’s absence narrows the rushing punch. If Frazier is limited, protection and third-down timing get stressed, pushing more quick-game throws into GB’s big-play-averse secondary.
Market-wise, a short spread favors the team with the cleaner down-to-down traits. The total near 46 can swing on a couple goal-to-go snaps. Mind the juice and the questionable tags; they can move both sides and props.
Bottom line: GB’s explosive passing and third-down edge give the visitors a slight advantage. PIT needs takeaways and goal-line stands to flip it. Without those, the Packers control tempo and sneak out a close win.
Statistical Battle Boards
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Points | 158 | #13 | 140 | #21 | |
| Total Points Per Game | 26.3 | #7 | 23.3 | #18 | |
| Total Touchdowns | 18 | #14 | 15 | #10 | |
| Passing Touchdowns | 10 | #20 | 10 | #14 | |
| Rushing Touchdowns | 8 | #9 | 4 | #12 | |
| Other Touchdowns | 0 | #32 | 1 | #27 | |
| Total Kicking Points | 50 | #14 | 48 | #21 | |
| Total Two Point Conversions | 0 | #29 | 1 | #11 | |
| Kick Extra Points | 17 | #10 | 12 | #26 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Passing Yards | 1355 | #21 | 1553 | #12 | |
| Net Passing Yards Per Game | 226 | #12 | 259 | #2 | |
| Passer Rating | 108 | #5 | 92 | #18 | |
| Passing Attempts | 176 | #30 | 237 | #21 | |
| Completions | 122 | #28 | 156 | #11 | |
| Completion Percentage | 69.3 | #6 | 65.8 | #18 | |
| Passing 1st downs | 67 | #22 | 76 | #16 | |
| Passing 1st Down % | 53.8 | #20 | 53.1 | #12 | |
| Longest Pass | 57 | #16 | 81 | #3 | |
| Passing Fumbles Lost | 1 | #21 | 1 | #17 | |
| Receiving Targets | 164 | #31 | 225 | #11 | |
| Receptions | 122 | #28 | 156 | #21 | |
| Receiving Yards After Catch | 742 | #13 | 743 | #18 | |
| YAC Average | 6.4 | #2 | 4.6 | #9 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 705 | #20 | 695 | #12 | |
| Rushing Yards Per Game | 118 | #15 | 116 | #16 | |
| Rushing Attempts | 177 | #17 | 157 | #8 | |
| Yards Per Rush Attempt | 4 | #21 | 4.4 | #13 | |
| Rushing 1st downs | 42 | #19 | 51 | #24 | |
| 20+ Yard Rushing Plays | 1 | #30 | 3 | #18 | |
| Long Rushing | 25 | #27 | 37 | #22 | |
| Rushing Fumbles | 1 | #30 | 3 | #18 | |
| Rushing Fumbles Lost | 0 | #26 | 3 | #1 | |
Game Preview of Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers. Week 8 of 2025 NFL Season
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