Please come back later to see the best odds for today's games here.
NE
HOU
Game Preview
The Texans head to Foxborough to face the Patriots at Gillette Stadium on January 18, 2026 (3:00 PM ET). The betting market says New England has the edge at home. The Patriots are -3.5 (-111), with Houston getting +3.5 (-119).
This game has a clear theme: can Houston score enough to justify that “hot streak” talk. The Texans were a low red-zone team all year. Their 44.9% red-zone TD rate sits in the 9th percentile, which is a big reason the total is only 40.5.
New England’s offense brings the bigger explosive profile. The Patriots posted a 9.9% explosive pass rate (97th percentile) and a 7.3% deep-pass explosive rate (95th). That matters against a Texans defense that was closer to average at preventing explosive passes (7.3% allowed, 42nd percentile).
The injury list may decide the “shape” of the game. Nico Collins is Questionable (concussion, HIGH impact) for Houston. New England’s Christian Gonzalez is also Questionable (concussion, HIGH impact). If one or both sit, it changes where the ball goes and how often teams take deep shots.
Current Season Form
NE
AwayHOU
HomeHead-to-Head Summary
Past Results
| Date | Opponent | Result | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-11 | vs LAC | W 16-3 | W +3.5 | u45.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | vs MIA | W 38-10 | W +14.0 | o44.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | @ NYJ | W 42-10 | W +-12.5 | o42.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | @ BAL | W 28-24 | W +3.5 | o48.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | vs BUF | L 31-35 | L -2.5 | o49.5 |
| 2025-12-01 | vs NYG | W 33-15 | W +7.0 | o46.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | @ CIN | W 26-20 | W +-7.5 | u50.5 |
| 2025-11-13 | vs NYJ | W 27-14 | W +12.5 | u43.5 |
| 2025-11-09 | @ TB | W 28-23 | W +2.5 | o48.5 |
| 2025-11-02 | vs ATL | W 24-23 | W +5.5 | o45.5 |
Key Insights
-
Houston’s defense is built to end drives. It posted a 65.0% third-down stop rate (97th percentile).
-
New England’s offense still moves the chains. The Patriots converted 49.5% on third down (94th percentile).
-
The Patriots create chunk plays through the air. They ranked in the 97th percentile in explosive pass rate (9.9%).
-
Houston’s offense struggles to finish drives. The Texans were in the 9th percentile in red-zone TD rate (44.9%).
-
New England’s protection is a concern. The Pats allowed sacks on 8.3% of dropbacks (16th percentile), and their LT health is shaky.
-
Injuries loom on both sides in coverage. Collins (HOU) and Gonzalez (NE) are both listed Questionable and both are high-impact.
Betting Insights
Patriots -3.5 (-111) matches the market’s stance that New England’s passing explosives separate. If the Pats hit a few chunk plays, this number is live.
Texans +3.5 (-119) is the “defense travels” bet. Houston’s 65.0% third-down stop rate can keep this tight into the fourth quarter.
Under 40.5 (-114) fits the profile if red-zone stalls continue. Houston’s 44.9% red-zone TD rate often turns touchdowns into field goals.
Over 40.5 (-123) has a clean case too. New England’s explosive pass rate (9.9%) is the type of trait that can break a low total fast.
C.J. Stroud under 204.5 pass yards (-119) makes sense if Nico Collins is limited or out. Houston’s explosive pass rate is only 6.6%.
Rhamondre Stevenson anytime TD (+170) lines up with Houston’s goal-line issues. The Texans’ goal-line stuff rate is 42.9% (9th percentile).
Final Summary
This matchup looks like a playoff grinder on the surface. The total sits at 40.5, and both defenses have a strong “get off the field” identity. The biggest scoring question is Houston’s red zone. The Texans were bottom-tier there all season.
New England’s best path is a few explosives plus long, steady drives. The Patriots rate elite in explosive passing, but they also have to protect the QB. Their sack rate allowed is high (8.3%), and their tackle injuries add stress.
Houston’s best path is defense first, run game second. If Nico Collins cannot go, the Texans may play even more conservative. That can help the under, but it can also shorten the game and keep spreads close.
Bet it like the injury news matters, because it does. Collins and Gonzalez are both high-impact Questionable tags. If either sits, props and totals can swing in a hurry.
Statistical Battle Boards
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Points | 243 | #22 | 226 | #25 | |
| Total Points Per Game | 22.1 | #21 | 18.8 | #6 | |
| Total Touchdowns | 23 | #25 | 25 | #11 | |
| Passing Touchdowns | 16 | #20 | 20 | #23 | |
| Rushing Touchdowns | 5 | #29 | 4 | #2 | |
| Other Touchdowns | 2 | #9 | 1 | #18 | |
| Total Kicking Points | 103 | #3 | 70 | #26 | |
| Total Two Point Conversions | 1 | #13 | 0 | #32 | |
| Kick Extra Points | 16 | #28 | 22 | #23 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Passing Yards | 2373 | #16 | 2562 | #10 | |
| Net Passing Yards Per Game | 216 | #16 | 214 | #16 | 🏈 |
| Passer Rating | 89.7 | #19 | 93.9 | #13 | |
| Passing Attempts | 392 | #6 | 396 | #25 | |
| Completions | 249 | #9 | 262 | #6 | |
| Completion Percentage | 63.5 | #20 | 66.2 | #22 | |
| Passing 1st downs | 123 | #14 | 134 | #22 | |
| Passing 1st Down % | 59.1 | #9 | 60.6 | #29 | |
| Longest Pass | 54 | #25 | 53 | #25 | 🏈 |
| Passing Fumbles Lost | 2 | #21 | 3 | #10 | |
| Receiving Targets | 380 | #6 | 377 | #8 | |
| Receptions | 249 | #9 | 262 | #27 | |
| Receiving Yards After Catch | 1021 | #26 | 1228 | #20 | |
| YAC Average | 4.1 | #31 | 4.7 | #8 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 1184 | #24 | 1052 | #5 | |
| Rushing Yards Per Game | 108 | #23 | 87.7 | #31 | |
| Rushing Attempts | 285 | #22 | 261 | #5 | |
| Yards Per Rush Attempt | 4.2 | #20 | 4 | #21 | |
| Rushing 1st downs | 59 | #30 | 66 | #10 | |
| 20+ Yard Rushing Plays | 5 | #19 | 3 | #29 | |
| Long Rushing | 30 | #29 | 31 | #31 | |
| Rushing Fumbles | 5 | #19 | 3 | #29 | |
| Rushing Fumbles Lost | 0 | #31 | 0 | #31 | 🏈 |
Game Preview of Houston Texans @ New England Patriots. Divisional Playoff Weekend of 2025-26 NFL Season
Frequently Asked Questions
