• Houston’s defense is built to end drives. It posted a 65.0% third-down stop rate (97th percentile).

• New England’s offense still moves the chains. The Patriots converted 49.5% on third down (94th percentile).

• The Patriots create chunk plays through the air. They ranked in the 97th percentile in explosive pass rate (9.9%).

• Houston’s offense struggles to finish drives. The Texans were in the 9th percentile in red-zone TD rate (44.9%).

• New England’s protection is a concern. The Pats allowed sacks on 8.3% of dropbacks (16th percentile), and their LT health is shaky.

• Injuries loom on both sides in coverage. Collins (HOU) and Gonzalez (NE) are both listed Questionable and both are high-impact.

• Patriots -3.5 (-111) matches the market’s stance that New England’s passing explosives separate. If the Pats hit a few chunk plays, this number is live.

• Texans +3.5 (-119) is the “defense travels” bet. Houston’s 65.0% third-down stop rate can keep this tight into the fourth quarter.

• Under 40.5 (-114) fits the profile if red-zone stalls continue. Houston’s 44.9% red-zone TD rate often turns touchdowns into field goals.

• Over 40.5 (-123) has a clean case too. New England’s explosive pass rate (9.9%) is the type of trait that can break a low total fast.

• C.J. Stroud under 204.5 pass yards (-119) makes sense if Nico Collins is limited or out. Houston’s explosive pass rate is only 6.6%.

• Rhamondre Stevenson anytime TD (+170) lines up with Houston’s goal-line issues. The Texans’ goal-line stuff rate is 42.9% (9th percentile).

This matchup looks like a playoff grinder on the surface. The total sits at 40.5, and both defenses have a strong “get off the field” identity. The biggest scoring question is Houston’s red zone. The Texans were bottom-tier there all season.

New England’s best path is a few explosives plus long, steady drives. The Patriots rate elite in explosive passing, but they also have to protect the QB. Their sack rate allowed is high (8.3%), and their tackle injuries add stress.

Houston’s best path is defense first, run game second. If Nico Collins cannot go, the Texans may play even more conservative. That can help the under, but it can also shorten the game and keep spreads close.

Bet it like the injury news matters, because it does. Collins and Gonzalez are both high-impact Questionable tags. If either sits, props and totals can swing in a hurry.