• Denver’s defense is built to erase chunk plays. It allows explosive runs at 1.7% and explosive passes at 5.0%.

• The Broncos tighten up near the goal line. They allow red zone TDs just 35.7% of the time.

• Jacksonville’s best defensive trait is creating takeaways. Its turnover generation rate is 2.5% (97th percentile).

• Denver protects its quarterback well, with a 3.0% sack rate allowed. That can mute Jacksonville’s pass-rush ceiling.

• If Walker Little and Ezra Cleveland are limited, Jacksonville may have to speed up Lawrence with quicker throws and extra blockers.

• If Josh Hines-Allen is limited, Jacksonville loses its best chance to create negative plays without blitzing.

• Broncos -3.5 (-112): Denver’s pass rush (9.9% sack rate generated) matches up with a Jaguars line that has key “Questionable” tags.

• Under 47.0 (-120): Denver’s defense is elite in the red zone (35.7% TDs allowed), which can turn touchdowns into field goals.

• Jaguars team total Under 21.0 (-123): Explosives are hard to find against Denver, and that can cap Jacksonville’s ceiling if the run game stalls.

• Trevor Lawrence Under 221.5 passing yards (-120): Denver limits explosive passes (5.0%) and can create sacks, which often cuts down attempts and efficiency.

• Bo Nix Over 18.5 rushing yards (-122): Jacksonville’s sack rate generated is only 5.1%, so Nix may have time to escape and pick up cheap yards.

• Courtland Sutton Anytime TD (+170): Jacksonville allows red zone TDs at 56.5%, and Denver’s offense converts in the red zone at 57.1%.

This game sets up as a style clash: Jacksonville wants clean pockets and explosive scoring, while Denver wants pressure, long drives, and red-zone stands. The Broncos’ defense has the traits you want at home in December. It limits big plays and forces tougher finishes near the goal line.

For Jacksonville, the injury report matters as much as any matchup chart. If Walker Little and Ezra Cleveland are both full go, the Jaguars have a real shot to keep Lawrence comfortable. If one sits or plays limited, Denver’s sack edge can flip drives fast.

Denver’s offense does not need to be flashy if it stays efficient. It protects the quarterback and can grind out possessions, which also pairs well with an under-style script. Jacksonville’s best counter is takeaways, since its turnover generation rate is strong.

If you’re betting it, respect the variance. A couple of early turnovers can blow up any “under” plan. But on paper, Denver’s pressure plus red-zone defense explains why the Broncos are favored and why several unders and efficiency-based props fit the matchup.