• Jacksonville has the NFL’s top-ranked run defense, allowing just 2.8% explosive runs, bad news for a Colts team that leans on Jonathan Taylor.
• The Jaguars defense also leads the league in goal-line stuff rate (70.6%), making red-zone trips a challenge for Indianapolis.
• Trevor Lawrence pilots a high-efficiency offense with multiple receiving threats, supported by a creative scheme from OC Liam Coen.
• The Colts’ defense has struggled against the pass, ranking in the bottom 25% in explosive pass plays allowed.
• Indianapolis protects the QB well (top 20% in sack rate allowed), but will be without LT Braden Smith and possibly C Tanor Bortolini, key pieces vs. Jacksonville’s front.
• Jacksonville’s secondary could be weakened if Greg Newsome II and Montaric Brown (both Questionable) don’t suit up.

• The Jaguars are -6.5 favorites (-118), signaling market confidence in their edge on both sides of the ball.
• The total is set at 48.5 points (Over -115 / Under -118), reflecting two capable offenses but also defensive strengths.
• Jonathan Taylor’s rushing line is 75.5 yards (Under -122), a tough mark to hit against the NFL’s best run defense.
• Trevor Lawrence’s passing prop is 236.5 yards (Over -120), with the Colts allowing a high rate of explosive plays through the air.
• Michael Pittman Jr. has a receiving line of 50.5 yards (Over -118), and could benefit from injuries in the Jaguars’ secondary.
• Alec Pierce is +220 to score a touchdown, offering value as a deep or red zone option in a pass-heavy game script.

The Colts will need a clean game from Philip Rivers and a few explosive plays to stay within reach. Injuries along the offensive line and on defense could limit their upside. Still, home-field urgency and divisional familiarity give them a puncher’s chance.

The betting lines reflect Jacksonville’s edge, but also suggest a high-scoring game is possible if both offenses execute. Monitor injury reports, especially for Buckner and the Jaguars’ corners, as they could swing how this one plays out.

In all, the Jaguars look like the more complete team. But with the Colts’ season on the line, expect a full-effort performance in what could be a tight divisional battle.