• The Rams hunt explosives through the air. They led the league in Deep Pass Expl (7.6%, 100th percentile).

• Chicago’s defense has struggled to limit big pass plays, with Expl Pass Allowed at 8.5% (16th percentile).

• The Rams are built to finish long possessions, posting Long Drive Efficiency at 91.3% (97th percentile).

• The Bears win with pressure moments, not just volume. Their Turnover Generation Rate is 3.2% (100th percentile).

• Chicago’s offense can stay on schedule. The Bears converted 46.9% on third down (88th percentile).

• Injury watch matters for both sides: the Rams are thin up front, while the Bears’ questionable receivers and defensive backs can reshape the game plan.

• Rams -4 (-118) vs Bears +4 (-119): The market is basically asking if LA can win by more than a field goal. The hook matters in a playoff game.

• Total 48.5 (Under -120, Over -119): Near even pricing. That tells you the book expects a tight range, not a clear shootout or rock fight.

• Moneyline (Rams -192, Bears +170): LA is the favorite, but Chicago is priced as a live home dog if the Bears’ playmakers are active.

• Rams team total 26.5 (Over -120): LA’s red zone profile is strong (61.8% TD rate, 88th percentile), and Chicago’s red zone defense is not (62.0% TD allowed, 16th percentile).

• Caleb Williams Under 223.5 passing (-120): This looks more attractive if Odunze and Moore are limited. If both are cleared, the under gets riskier fast.

• Kyren Williams anytime TD (+126): This is a clean way to play the Rams’ red zone edge without needing a blowout. Touchdowns still carry variance, so size it accordingly.

If the Rams control the explosive-play battle, they can put Chicago in catch-up mode. The Bears have struggled to prevent big completions, and Los Angeles is elite at creating them.

The Bears can still keep this close with tempo and third-down success. Chicago plays fast, and that can turn the game into a high-snap grind where one turnover flips the script.

Watch the injury reports right up to kickoff. If Moore and Odunze are limited, Chicago’s passing ceiling drops, and the Rams can lean into methodical drives. If Chicago’s defensive backs are limited, the Rams’ deep game gets even scarier.

From a betting lens, the key numbers tell the story. Rams -4 and a 48.5 total sit right on the “close game, but LA has the edge” line. That is a thin margin, so respect the juice and the playoff volatility.