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CHI
LAR
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The Rams head to Soldier Field to face the Bears on Sunday night in the NFC Divisional Round. Chicago is riding a wave after a wild comeback win over Green Bay, led by Caleb Williams and a late score to DJ Moore.
This matchup has a clean tension: the Rams want chunk plays, and the Bears have to stop them. Los Angeles finished the season as the league’s best deep-shot team by rate, and Chicago’s defense has been leaky on explosive passes. But it's gonna be cold... And just how well will the Beach Boys cope in the snow. Have they learned from the Eagles game last year. It's a question most analysts are debating right now.
Chicago has its own path. The Bears play fast and convert third downs at a high clip. That helps them stack drives and keep Matthew Stafford watching from the sideline.
The big swing factor is who suits up at full strength. The Bears list both Moore and Rome Odunze as questionable. The Rams are also dealing with a battered offensive line, including a key tackle on injured reserve and a starting guard questionable.
Current Season Form
CHI
AwayLAR
HomeHead-to-Head Summary
Past Results
| Date | Opponent | Result | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-10 | vs GB | W 31-27 | W +-2.5 | o45.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | vs DET | L 16-19 | W +3.5 | u51.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | @ SF | L 38-42 | L 3.5 | o51.5 |
| 2025-12-20 | vs GB | W 22-16 | W +1.5 | u45.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | vs CLE | W 31-3 | W +7.5 | u38.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | @ GB | L 21-28 | L 6.5 | o44.5 |
| 2025-11-28 | @ PHI | W 24-15 | W +7.0 | u43.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | vs PIT | W 31-28 | W +3.0 | o46.5 |
| 2025-11-16 | @ MIN | W 19-17 | L 3.0 | u47.5 |
| 2025-11-09 | vs NYG | W 24-20 | W +4.5 | u45.5 |
Key Insights
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The Rams hunt explosives through the air. They led the league in Deep Pass Expl (7.6%, 100th percentile).
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Chicago’s defense has struggled to limit big pass plays, with Expl Pass Allowed at 8.5% (16th percentile).
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The Rams are built to finish long possessions, posting Long Drive Efficiency at 91.3% (97th percentile).
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The Bears win with pressure moments, not just volume. Their Turnover Generation Rate is 3.2% (100th percentile).
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Chicago’s offense can stay on schedule. The Bears converted 46.9% on third down (88th percentile).
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Injury watch matters for both sides: the Rams are thin up front, while the Bears’ questionable receivers and defensive backs can reshape the game plan.
Betting Insights
Rams -4 (-118) vs Bears +4 (-119): The market is basically asking if LA can win by more than a field goal. The hook matters in a playoff game.
Total 48.5 (Under -120, Over -119): Near even pricing. That tells you the book expects a tight range, not a clear shootout or rock fight.
Moneyline (Rams -192, Bears +170): LA is the favorite, but Chicago is priced as a live home dog if the Bears’ playmakers are active.
Rams team total 26.5 (Over -120): LA’s red zone profile is strong (61.8% TD rate, 88th percentile), and Chicago’s red zone defense is not (62.0% TD allowed, 16th percentile).
Caleb Williams Under 223.5 passing (-120): This looks more attractive if Odunze and Moore are limited. If both are cleared, the under gets riskier fast.
Kyren Williams anytime TD (+126): This is a clean way to play the Rams’ red zone edge without needing a blowout. Touchdowns still carry variance, so size it accordingly.
Final Summary
If the Rams control the explosive-play battle, they can put Chicago in catch-up mode. The Bears have struggled to prevent big completions, and Los Angeles is elite at creating them.
The Bears can still keep this close with tempo and third-down success. Chicago plays fast, and that can turn the game into a high-snap grind where one turnover flips the script.
Watch the injury reports right up to kickoff. If Moore and Odunze are limited, Chicago’s passing ceiling drops, and the Rams can lean into methodical drives. If Chicago’s defensive backs are limited, the Rams’ deep game gets even scarier.
From a betting lens, the key numbers tell the story. Rams -4 and a 48.5 total sit right on the “close game, but LA has the edge” line. That is a thin margin, so respect the juice and the playoff volatility.
Statistical Battle Boards
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Points | 306 | #7 | 292 | #6 | |
| Total Points Per Game | 27.8 | #6 | 26.5 | #26 | |
| Total Touchdowns | 38 | #4 | 35 | #29 | |
| Passing Touchdowns | 30 | #1 | 22 | #30 | |
| Rushing Touchdowns | 8 | #22 | 11 | #21 | |
| Other Touchdowns | 0 | #23 | 2 | #27 | |
| Total Kicking Points | 72 | #25 | 76 | #22 | |
| Total Two Point Conversions | 0 | #24 | 3 | #4 | |
| Kick Extra Points | 36 | #2 | 31 | #6 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Passing Yards | 2732 | #6 | 2472 | #14 | |
| Net Passing Yards Per Game | 248 | #5 | 225 | #12 | |
| Passer Rating | 113 | #1 | 92.9 | #14 | |
| Passing Attempts | 374 | #14 | 340 | #12 | |
| Completions | 248 | #10 | 233 | #17 | |
| Completion Percentage | 66.3 | #15 | 68.5 | #28 | |
| Passing 1st downs | 148 | #3 | 119 | #15 | |
| Passing 1st Down % | 59.9 | #7 | 52.9 | #7 | 🏈 |
| Longest Pass | 88 | #1 | 64 | #14 | |
| Passing Fumbles Lost | 3 | #17 | 3 | #17 | 🏈 |
| Receiving Targets | 364 | #11 | 328 | #21 | |
| Receptions | 248 | #10 | 233 | #16 | |
| Receiving Yards After Catch | 1093 | #20 | 1117 | #12 | |
| YAC Average | 4.4 | #30 | 4.8 | #10 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 1210 | #22 | 1519 | #28 | |
| Rushing Yards Per Game | 110 | #22 | 138 | #5 | |
| Rushing Attempts | 289 | #21 | 293 | #17 | |
| Yards Per Rush Attempt | 4.2 | #21 | 5.2 | #3 | |
| Rushing 1st downs | 73 | #21 | 82 | #24 | |
| 20+ Yard Rushing Plays | 5 | #22 | 10 | #6 | |
| Long Rushing | 45 | #20 | 64 | #11 | |
| Rushing Fumbles | 5 | #22 | 10 | #6 | |
| Rushing Fumbles Lost | 2 | #7 | 4 | #4 | |
Game Preview of Los Angeles Rams @ Chicago Bears. Divisional Playoff Weekend of 2025-26 NFL Season
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