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SEA
LAR
Game Preview
Sunday, Jan. 25 (6:30 PM ET) The Los Angeles Rams take on the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field. For teams that play so often, no game before has meant as much as this one.. Seattle is a -3 favorite (+104), and the main total is 47.5.
This matchup screams pressure and discipline. The story on Seattle starts with Sam Darnold, who is questionable with an oblique. The storylines also point to his issues versus the Rams’ defense in recent meetings, especially when the pocket collapses.
On the other side, Matthew Stafford has swung wildly against Seattle this year. The Rams can strike fast through the air, but this Seahawks defense has been built to make you earn every first down.
The run game also matters more than usual for Seattle. Zach Charbonnet is out, so the workload funnel points to Kenneth Walker III. If Seattle can stay balanced, it can keep Darnold out of obvious passing downs and let its defense control the game.
Current Season Form
SEA
AwayLAR
HomeHead-to-Head Summary
Past Results
| Date | Opponent | Result | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | vs SF | W 41-6 | W +6.5 | o44.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | @ SF | W 13-3 | W +-2.5 | u47.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | @ CAR | W 27-10 | W +-6.5 | u42.5 |
| 2025-12-18 | vs LAR | W 38-37 | W +1.5 | o42.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | vs IND | W 18-16 | W +13.5 | u41.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | @ ATL | W 37-9 | W +-7.0 | o44.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | vs MIN | W 26-0 | W +12.5 | u42.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | @ TEN | W 30-24 | W +-12.5 | o41.5 |
| 2025-11-16 | @ LAR | L 19-21 | L 3.0 | u49.5 |
| 2025-11-09 | vs ARI | W 44-22 | W +7.0 | o44.5 |
Key Insights
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The Rams create chunk throws: Deep Pass Expl is 7.6% (100th percentile).
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Seattle’s defense tends to win the down-and-distance battle: Third Down Stop Rate is 64.3% (94th percentile).
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Seattle’s front can finish: Sack Rate Generated is 7.4% (84th percentile).
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Both offenses have protected the quarterback well on the season: SEA Sack Rate Allowed 3.2% (94th percentile), LAR 3.9% (84th percentile).
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Seattle’s offense has struggled when it gets behind the sticks: Third And Long Conversion is 17.6% (8th percentile).
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Rams finishing drives has been a strength: Red Zone TD Rate is 61.8% (88th percentile), which matters versus a defense that can tighten near the goal line.
Betting Insights
Seahawks -3 (+104) is the clean “key number” side. Seattle’s 64.3% third-down stop rate (94th percentile) supports a game where stops swing field position.
Under 47.5 (-130) matches a script where both teams try to avoid mistakes and play longer drives. Seattle also sits at 100.0% plays per minute (31st percentile), which can mean fewer total snaps.
Kenneth Walker III: anytime TD (-159) and over 79.5 rushing (-149) both fit the same idea. Charbonnet is out, and SEA’s 5.1% explosive run rate (91st percentile) gives Walker a real ceiling if the volume climbs.
Kyren Williams anytime TD (+110) is a bet on Rams finishing. L.A. has a 61.8% red-zone TD rate (88th percentile), and that travel well if the Rams can sustain drives.
Matthew Stafford under 252.5 passing yards (-119) is a way to bet Seattle’s defense without laying points. The Seahawks win key downs at a 64.3% stop rate (94th percentile).
Puka Nacua under 89.5 receiving yards (-125) leans on Seattle limiting big gains. SEA allows explosive passes at 6.0% (80th percentile), so the Rams may need more short completions and longer drives.
Final Summary
Seattle looks like the more stable side at home, but the biggest swing factors sit in the Seahawks’ injury list. Sam Darnold (questionable) and Charles Cross (questionable) are worth tracking all the way to kickoff. If either is limited, Seattle may lean even harder on Walker and the defense.
The Rams’ path is clear, too. They want explosive throws, and their season profile backs it up with a 7.6% deep pass explosive rate. If they hit a couple early, this game can flip fast. As we saw from Chicago last week, the Rams offense can be blunted, especially if they abandon the run early.
From a betting angle, the market gives you a clean choice around the key number. Seahawks -3 (+104) prices in a tight game, and Under 47.5 (-130) fits a script where both teams play cautious and try to win field position.
No matter what you play, respect the variance. One turnover or one busted coverage can blow up a read. Keep an eye on the inactive list, especially at quarterback and left tackle, before you lock anything in. With this one, some in-game action could be the ticket. Look for signs of struggles early on with either the run game of the Rams or with glimpses of Darnold regressing into that turnover machine. It's a tough one to call. Both these teams are really good most of the time.
Statistical Battle Boards
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Points | 306 | #7 | 217 | #27 | |
| Total Points Per Game | 27.8 | #6 | 19.7 | #7 | |
| Total Touchdowns | 38 | #4 | 25 | #12 | |
| Passing Touchdowns | 30 | #1 | 16 | #12 | |
| Rushing Touchdowns | 8 | #22 | 7 | #4 | |
| Other Touchdowns | 0 | #23 | 2 | #24 | |
| Total Kicking Points | 72 | #25 | 61 | #30 | |
| Total Two Point Conversions | 0 | #24 | 3 | #3 | |
| Kick Extra Points | 36 | #2 | 19 | #28 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Passing Yards | 2732 | #6 | 2312 | #19 | |
| Net Passing Yards Per Game | 248 | #5 | 210 | #19 | |
| Passer Rating | 113 | #1 | 84.5 | #26 | |
| Passing Attempts | 374 | #14 | 413 | #27 | |
| Completions | 248 | #10 | 261 | #7 | |
| Completion Percentage | 66.3 | #15 | 63.2 | #10 | |
| Passing 1st downs | 148 | #3 | 128 | #21 | |
| Passing 1st Down % | 59.9 | #7 | 62.1 | #30 | |
| Longest Pass | 88 | #1 | 65 | #12 | |
| Passing Fumbles Lost | 3 | #17 | 3 | #14 | |
| Receiving Targets | 364 | #11 | 396 | #6 | |
| Receptions | 248 | #10 | 261 | #26 | |
| Receiving Yards After Catch | 1093 | #20 | 1355 | #26 | |
| YAC Average | 4.4 | #30 | 5.2 | #19 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 1210 | #22 | 999 | #3 | |
| Rushing Yards Per Game | 110 | #22 | 90.8 | #29 | |
| Rushing Attempts | 289 | #21 | 264 | #7 | |
| Yards Per Rush Attempt | 4.2 | #21 | 3.8 | #29 | |
| Rushing 1st downs | 73 | #21 | 55 | #5 | |
| 20+ Yard Rushing Plays | 5 | #22 | 4 | #22 | 🏈 |
| Long Rushing | 45 | #20 | 55 | #14 | |
| Rushing Fumbles | 5 | #22 | 4 | #22 | 🏈 |
| Rushing Fumbles Lost | 2 | #7 | 0 | #30 | |
Game Preview of Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks. NFC Championship of 2025-26 NFL Season.
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