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PIT
MIA
Game Preview
The Dolphins bring a hot streak into Pittsburgh. They have won four straight, and the run game has been the engine. The storylines point to a ground attack topping 160 yards per game during the streak, including a huge day against the Jets.
This matchup comes down to style. Miami can score in a hurry when it hits explosive plays, especially on the ground. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, is built to stack long drives and keep the ball. That can grind down a game and cut the total number of possessions.
Tua Tagovailoa sits in the spotlight. Miami does not have a run-around quarterback to bail out broken plays, so protection and timing matter. If Pittsburgh’s pressure wins early, Miami may lean even harder on the run.
Injuries add real uncertainty. De’Von Achane is questionable with ribs, and T.J. Watt is also questionable after a chest issue that led to more evaluation. Those two statuses can swing both game script and the best betting angles.
Current Season Form
PIT
AwayMIA
HomeHead-to-Head Summary
Past Results
| Date | Opponent | Result | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | @ BAL | W 27-22 | L 5.5 | o43.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | vs BUF | L 7-26 | L -3.0 | u44.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | @ CHI | L 28-31 | L 3.0 | o46.5 |
| 2025-11-16 | vs CIN | W 34-12 | W +5.5 | u48.5 |
| 2025-11-09 | @ LAC | L 10-25 | L 3.0 | u45.5 |
| 2025-11-02 | vs IND | W 27-20 | W +-3.5 | u51.5 |
| 2025-10-26 | vs GB | L 25-35 | L -3.0 | o46.5 |
| 2025-10-16 | @ CIN | L 31-33 | W +-5.5 | o45.5 |
| 2025-10-12 | vs CLE | W 23-9 | W +5.5 | u37.5 |
| 2025-09-28 | vs MIN | W 24-21 | W +-2.5 | o41.5 |
Key Insights
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Miami’s offense is built on chunk runs: 6.8% explosive run rate (100th percentile).
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Pittsburgh can control tempo: 90.9% long-drive efficiency (97th percentile).
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The Steelers are sturdy at the goal line: 65.8% goal-line stuff rate (84th percentile).
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Miami can be boom-or-bust: quick strike capability 3.7% (100th percentile), but long-drive efficiency 75.0% (25th percentile).
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Both defenses create turnovers at a high clip: Pittsburgh 2.2% and Miami 2.0% turnover generation rates.
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Injury swing points: Achane (Q) changes Miami’s explosive run ceiling, and Watt (Q) changes how comfortable Tua can play in the pocket.
Betting Insights
Steelers -3.5 (-105) vs Dolphins +3.5 (-125): That hook matters. If you like Miami in a close game, +3.5 protects more late outcomes, but you pay extra juice.
Total 42.0: Under -120 and Over -112. Pittsburgh’s long-drive profile (90.9%) supports fewer total snaps, which leans Under if the game stays clean.
Tua passing yards 196.5: Under -119. Miami’s explosive pass rates are modest (6.3% explosive pass rate), and the storyline points to a run-forward plan.
Jaylen Warren rushing yards 48.5: Over -122. Miami has a red flag on defense with 6.6% explosive run allowed (3rd percentile).
Jaylen Waddle receiving yards 62.5: Under -118. If Miami’s passing volume dips, Waddle needs a big efficiency day to clear this number.
Achane markets need a final check: He is Questionable, but is priced like a focal point (Anytime TD -125, 76.5 rush yards, 29.5 receiving yards). If he’s limited, those Overs get shaky fast.
Final Summary
Miami’s best path is simple: run hard, hit one or two explosives, and keep Tua in manageable downs. That matches what they have done during the win streak. It also travels better if conditions get messy.
Pittsburgh’s path is also clear: string together long drives, win the red zone, and force Miami to play left-handed. The Steelers’ long-drive efficiency number supports that kind of game, especially at home.
From a betting view, the market sets Pittsburgh as a moderate favorite at -3.5 (-105), with Miami +3.5 (-125). The total is low at 42.0, which tells you the market expects a tighter, more physical game than a typical Dolphins track meet.
Keep the injury watch front and center. Achane (Questionable) and Watt (Questionable) are the two biggest swing pieces. If one of them is limited or out, it can change the best side and the best props in a hurry.
Statistical Battle Boards
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Points | 226 | #24 | 263 | #14 | |
| Total Points Per Game | 20.5 | #24 | 23.9 | #20 | |
| Total Touchdowns | 25 | #22 | 28 | #15 | |
| Passing Touchdowns | 17 | #17 | 19 | #21 | |
| Rushing Touchdowns | 7 | #23 | 8 | #11 | |
| Other Touchdowns | 1 | #10 | 1 | #21 | |
| Total Kicking Points | 74 | #24 | 89 | #10 | |
| Total Two Point Conversions | 1 | #23 | 2 | #10 | |
| Kick Extra Points | 23 | #19 | 23 | #20 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Passing Yards | 2063 | #27 | 2846 | #3 | |
| Net Passing Yards Per Game | 188 | #26 | 259 | #2 | |
| Passer Rating | 87.6 | #21 | 91.1 | #19 | |
| Passing Attempts | 330 | #27 | 432 | #32 | |
| Completions | 225 | #21 | 278 | #2 | |
| Completion Percentage | 68.2 | #8 | 64.4 | #15 | |
| Passing 1st downs | 116 | #20 | 136 | #25 | |
| Passing 1st Down % | 60.7 | #6 | 56.2 | #17 | |
| Longest Pass | 47 | #29 | 81 | #3 | |
| Passing Fumbles Lost | 2 | #24 | 5 | #3 | |
| Receiving Targets | 320 | #25 | 410 | #2 | |
| Receptions | 225 | #21 | 278 | #31 | |
| Receiving Yards After Catch | 1177 | #19 | 1450 | #29 | |
| YAC Average | 5.2 | #12 | 5.2 | #20 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 1241 | #19 | 1163 | #14 | |
| Rushing Yards Per Game | 113 | #18 | 106 | #18 | 🏈 |
| Rushing Attempts | 260 | #28 | 280 | #11 | |
| Yards Per Rush Attempt | 4.8 | #8 | 4.2 | #15 | |
| Rushing 1st downs | 64 | #26 | 86 | #26 | 🏈 |
| 20+ Yard Rushing Plays | 10 | #5 | 4 | #24 | |
| Long Rushing | 59 | #13 | 37 | #27 | |
| Rushing Fumbles | 10 | #5 | 4 | #24 | |
| Rushing Fumbles Lost | 1 | #16 | 4 | #2 | |
Game Preview of Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburgh Steelers. Week 15 of 2025 NFL Season
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