• Miami’s offense is built on chunk runs: 6.8% explosive run rate (100th percentile).

• Pittsburgh can control tempo: 90.9% long-drive efficiency (97th percentile).

• The Steelers are sturdy at the goal line: 65.8% goal-line stuff rate (84th percentile).

• Miami can be boom-or-bust: quick strike capability 3.7% (100th percentile), but long-drive efficiency 75.0% (25th percentile).

• Both defenses create turnovers at a high clip: Pittsburgh 2.2% and Miami 2.0% turnover generation rates.

• Injury swing points: Achane (Q) changes Miami’s explosive run ceiling, and Watt (Q) changes how comfortable Tua can play in the pocket.

• Steelers -3.5 (-105) vs Dolphins +3.5 (-125): That hook matters. If you like Miami in a close game, +3.5 protects more late outcomes, but you pay extra juice.

• Total 42.0: Under -120 and Over -112. Pittsburgh’s long-drive profile (90.9%) supports fewer total snaps, which leans Under if the game stays clean.

• Tua passing yards 196.5: Under -119. Miami’s explosive pass rates are modest (6.3% explosive pass rate), and the storyline points to a run-forward plan.

• Jaylen Warren rushing yards 48.5: Over -122. Miami has a red flag on defense with 6.6% explosive run allowed (3rd percentile).

• Jaylen Waddle receiving yards 62.5: Under -118. If Miami’s passing volume dips, Waddle needs a big efficiency day to clear this number.

• Achane markets need a final check: He is Questionable, but is priced like a focal point (Anytime TD -125, 76.5 rush yards, 29.5 receiving yards). If he’s limited, those Overs get shaky fast.

Miami’s best path is simple: run hard, hit one or two explosives, and keep Tua in manageable downs. That matches what they have done during the win streak. It also travels better if conditions get messy.

Pittsburgh’s path is also clear: string together long drives, win the red zone, and force Miami to play left-handed. The Steelers’ long-drive efficiency number supports that kind of game, especially at home.

From a betting view, the market sets Pittsburgh as a moderate favorite at -3.5 (-105), with Miami +3.5 (-125). The total is low at 42.0, which tells you the market expects a tighter, more physical game than a typical Dolphins track meet.

Keep the injury watch front and center. Achane (Questionable) and Watt (Questionable) are the two biggest swing pieces. If one of them is limited or out, it can change the best side and the best props in a hurry.