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CHI
NO
Game Preview
The Bears return to Soldier Field on Sunday to host the Saints. Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET. Chicago rides momentum and a defense that hunts the ball. New Orleans tries to steady a shaky start behind second-year QB Spencer Rattler.
This matchup leans on style. Chicago wins with pressure, tight zones, and timely takeaways. In simple terms, they force mistakes. New Orleans plays slower to control downs, but they struggle to create big pass plays.
Red zone trips may decide it. The Saints defense has allowed touchdowns at a high rate inside the 20. That can turn long Bears drives into sevens instead of threes.
Injuries add variance. Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, and Juwan Johnson are all Questionable for New Orleans. D’Andre Swift, DJ Moore, and Cole Kmet carry Questionable tags for Chicago. Check inactives before betting player props.
Current Season Form
CHI
AwayNO
HomeHead-to-Head Summary
Past Results
| Date | Opponent | Result | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-13 | @ WAS | W 25-24 | L 5.5 | u49.5 |
| 2025-09-28 | @ LV | W 25-24 | L 1.5 | o47.5 |
| 2025-09-21 | vs DAL | W 31-14 | W +-1.5 | u49.5 |
| 2025-09-14 | @ DET | L 21-52 | L 6.0 | o46.5 |
| 2025-09-08 | vs MIN | L 24-27 | L -1.5 | o43.5 |
| 2025-01-05 | @ GB | W 24-22 | L 10.0 | o41.5 |
| 2024-12-26 | vs SEA | L 3-6 | L -3.5 | u43.5 |
| 2024-12-22 | vs DET | L 17-34 | L -7.0 | o47.5 |
| 2024-12-16 | @ MIN | L 12-30 | L 7.0 | u43.5 |
| 2024-12-08 | @ SF | L 13-38 | L 3.0 | o43.5 |
Key Insights
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Turnover edge favors Chicago: The Bears’ turnover generation rate is 3.9% (top of the league). That fits their identity and shortens fields.
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Saints explosive pass game is limited: New Orleans’ explosive pass rate is 3.8% (very low), which reduces quick-strike potential if they fall behind.
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Money-down mismatch: Chicago’s third-down stop rate is 68.8% (elite) versus a Saints offense at 37.7% on third downs.
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Red-zone stress on New Orleans: The Saints have allowed 72.2% touchdowns in the red zone, which can fuel Bears scoring.
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Quick points gear exists for CHI: The Bears’ quick strike capability is 3.3% (88th pct), useful if they win field position.
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Small-sample note: Chicago’s big play TD rate 30% comes from 20 big plays, so expect some regression with more snaps.
Betting Insights
Spread: Bears -5.0 (-105). Chicago’s defense owns the leverage with a 68.8% third-down stop rate and 3.9% takeaways.
Total: Under 46.5 (-111) is in range if Chicago’s defense stalls drives and New Orleans’ 3.8% explosive pass rate limits chunk gains.
Bears team total Over 26.0 (-120): Saints’ 72.2% red-zone TD rate allowed can turn sustained drives into points.
Saints team total Under 20.5 (-122): Money downs and turnovers point to fewer sustained scores for NO.
Spencer Rattler Under 211.5 passing yards (-120): Bears squeeze third downs; Saints lack explosive air plays.
Alvin Kamara Over 21.5 receiving yards (-119) — volatility (Questionable): NO uses no-huddle 19.7%; check status.
Final Summary
Chicago brings a clear edge on defense. They win takeaways and get off the field. That plays into field position and gives their offense more shots.
New Orleans needs efficiency. Short throws to backs and tight ends can help, but the lack of explosive passes raises the degree of difficulty. Red-zone defense has also hurt them, and that is a bad match with Chicago’s quick-strike ability.
From a betting view, Bears -5.0 (-105) fits the matchup. The Under 46.5 (-111) is also live if the Bears control pace and the Saints stay limited downfield. Team totals reflect the same story: modest lean to Bears Over 26.0 and Saints Under 20.5.
Bottom line: turnovers, third downs, and red-zone execution should steer this game. If Chicago protects the ball and finishes drives, the Bears are set up well at home.
Statistical Battle Boards
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Points | 111 | #26 | 141 | #15 | |
| Total Points Per Game | 18.5 | #28 | 28.2 | #27 | |
| Total Touchdowns | 10 | #30 | 17 | #21 | |
| Passing Touchdowns | 6 | #29 | 13 | #29 | 🏈 |
| Rushing Touchdowns | 3 | #27 | 4 | #14 | |
| Other Touchdowns | 1 | #7 | 0 | #12 | |
| Total Kicking Points | 51 | #7 | 35 | #27 | |
| Total Two Point Conversions | 0 | #20 | 2 | #4 | |
| Kick Extra Points | 9 | #26 | 14 | #13 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Passing Yards | 1175 | #18 | 1065 | #26 | |
| Net Passing Yards Per Game | 196 | #22 | 213 | #18 | |
| Passer Rating | 89 | #22 | 103 | #9 | |
| Passing Attempts | 207 | #8 | 140 | #3 | |
| Completions | 140 | #5 | 103 | #29 | |
| Completion Percentage | 67.6 | #14 | 73.6 | #31 | |
| Passing 1st downs | 60 | #18 | 51 | #5 | |
| Passing 1st Down % | 50 | #28 | 50.5 | #7 | |
| Longest Pass | 87 | #2 | 64 | #10 | |
| Passing Fumbles Lost | 2 | #5 | 0 | #31 | |
| Receiving Targets | 198 | #8 | 136 | #30 | |
| Receptions | 140 | #5 | 103 | #4 | |
| Receiving Yards After Catch | 515 | #27 | 512 | #4 | |
| YAC Average | 3.7 | #31 | 5.0 | #14 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 657 | #16 | 782 | #25 | |
| Rushing Yards Per Game | 110 | #19 | 156 | #2 | |
| Rushing Attempts | 166 | #8 | 138 | #8 | 🏈 |
| Yards Per Rush Attempt | 4 | #23 | 5.7 | #2 | |
| Rushing 1st downs | 41 | #10 | 39 | #17 | |
| 20+ Yard Rushing Plays | 0 | #31 | 6 | #4 | |
| Long Rushing | 18 | #30 | 64 | #8 | |
| Rushing Fumbles | 0 | #31 | 6 | #4 | |
| Rushing Fumbles Lost | 0 | #31 | 3 | #2 | |
Game Preview of New Orleans Saints @ Chicago Bears. Week 7 of 2025 NFL Season
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