• Miami’s run game is a real strength. The Dolphins have an explosive run rate of 6.8%, which sits in the 97th percentile league-wide. That matches the eye test of an Achane-centric ground attack that can flip the field in one carry.

• The Saints have almost no explosive element on offense. Their explosive run rate is only 1.5% and their explosive pass rate is 4.2%, both in the 3rd percentile. They move at a decent pace with a high no-huddle rate but rarely create big plays.

• Red zone is a problem for New Orleans. The Saints score touchdowns on just 33.3% of their red zone trips, another 3rd percentile mark. With Kamara, Juwan Johnson and Olave banged up, the usual red zone options may be limited.

• Miami’s defense has tightened in scoring areas. The Dolphins rank in the 91st percentile for red zone TDs allowed by this tracking, and recent games have seen them hold opponents to low point totals. That pairs well with a turnover generation rate that grades slightly above average.

• The Saints offensive line and skill room are thin. Multiple tackles and centers are on injured reserve, and Kamara, Devin Neal, Olave, and several tight ends are Questionable or out. That puts even more on rookie QB Tyler Shough in a loud road environment.

• Special teams could swing hidden yards. New Orleans has a 69.2% field goal rate (6th percentile) and just made a kicker change, while Miami’s field goal accuracy is a more stable 85.0%. In a game with a low total, missed kicks would loom large.

• Spread focus: Dolphins -5.5 (-118)
  Miami is laying nearly a touchdown despite a 4–7 record, reflecting their recent form and New Orleans’ offensive crisis. The handicap leans on the Dolphins’ explosive run game (6.8% rate, 97th percentile) vs a Saints offense that has not hit 20 points in six straight and is dealing with Questionable tags for Kamara and Olave.

• Total focus: Under bias at 41.5 (Over -118 / Under -114)
  The Saints bring a six-game UNDER streak and a 33.3% red zone TD rate into a matchup with a rested defense. On the other side, Miami has shifted to a more run-heavy, slower style, and their plays per minute sit low in the league, which can chew clock.

• Saints team total 17.0: Under 17.0 (-111)
  This number asks a broken Saints offense to reach 17 or more in a spot where their best players are banged up, their red zone TD rate is bottom of the league, and field goal accuracy is just 69.2%. Any red zone stall or missed kick puts pressure on the over.

• Dolphins team total 23.5: Over 23.5 (-119)
  Miami is priced for roughly three touchdowns and a kick against a defense that ranks near the bottom by red zone TD allowed percentile. If Achane is active and the offense continues its efficient, run-led approach, 24 points is a fair ceiling.

• De’Von Achane 78.5 rushing yards: lean Over (-122)
  Achane is tied directly to Miami’s elite explosive run rate. With the Dolphins favored by 5.5 at home, the game script points to more second-half carries if they lead. His Questionable tag adds risk; this is a high-juice play that may not be worth heavy exposure.

• Quarterback passing yards: lean Shough under 214.5 (-120), small lean Tua under 223.5 (-119)
  Shough faces a defense that grades well in red zone TD prevention and turnover rate, behind a thin line with limited weapons. For Tua, Miami’s shift toward the run, modest explosive pass rate (5.8%, 19th percentile), and a possible comfortable game script all point slightly toward the under. Both are tight numbers with similar juice on each side.

Saints at Dolphins sets up as a clash between a team trying to save its season and a team just trying to stop the bleeding. Miami has answered early chaos and a front office shakeup with a 3–1 stretch that puts them back on the fringe of the AFC picture. New Orleans, at 2–9, feels deep into evaluation mode, especially with so many offensive starters on the injury report.

On the field, the cleanest edge belongs to Miami’s ground game. The Dolphins sit near the top of the league in explosive run rate, and their recent wins have come with a more patient, run-first script that leans on De’Von Achane. The Saints, by contrast, are near the bottom in explosive runs and passes and have struggled badly in the red zone. That is before you layer in Questionable tags for Kamara, Olave, and multiple linemen.

The Saints defense and some historical road trends in Florida are the main reasons to believe in an upset or a cover. Their pass rush can still convert pressure to sacks at an above-average rate, and Miami’s offensive line is not perfect. If New Orleans can force a couple of long-yardage situations and get a turnover from a banged-up Tua, it can drag this game into the kind of slog where every point matters.

Overall, though, the matchup leans toward a lower-scoring game where Miami’s run game and red zone edge carry the day. If you like the Dolphins, you are betting that their recent surge is real and that their health is good enough to keep that going. If you lean to the Saints, you are fading a public home favorite and trusting an ugly offense to grind out just enough points. Either way, the injuries and the low total suggest keeping stake sizes reasonable and being ready to adjust if late news breaks before kickoff.