• The Saints defense ranks in the 64th percentile on third down stops, helping get off the field and limit scoring drives.
• Tennessee’s defense thrives on pressure, posting an 86th percentile sack rate and converting pressure into sacks at a high rate.
• New Orleans has a strong big-play touchdown rate (24%), though it comes from a small sample size, indicating some volatility.
• The Titans struggle to extend drives, converting only 31.7% on third down (3rd percentile).
• Both teams run no-huddle offenses at above-average rates, which could lead to faster drives but also more stalled possessions.
• Tennessee's red zone offense often settles for field goals, scoring touchdowns on just 39.1% of trips inside the 20 (12th percentile).

• The Saints are 3-point road favorites (-111), but the Titans offer value at +3.0 (-122) with home-field edge and recent momentum.
• The total is set at 40.0, with the Under juiced to -130, reflecting expectations for a defensive battle.
• Tyler Shough Under 220.5 passing yards (-119) is in play, as the Saints limit explosive passes and force third-down stops.
• Chris Olave Anytime TD (+134) has upside with the Titans missing a top cornerback and Olave leading the Saints in targets.
• Tyjae Spears Over 24.5 rushing yards (-118) looks reasonable against a Saints defense ranked in the bottom 5 for explosive runs allowed.

The Saints have found a spark lately, and their defense gives them a slight edge. But injuries to key players like Alvin Kamara and their spotty offensive consistency could keep the Titans in it. Tennessee’s defense is aggressive and opportunistic, and their home crowd could help them stay close.

With a low total and tight spread, this game could come down to a few big plays, or mistakes. The under looks playable, though the price is steep. Props tied to player matchups, especially in the passing game, may offer better value.

Expect a gritty, defensive game where field position and turnovers matter. And while the stakes are low, the effort likely won’t be.