• Philly finishes drives. A 69.4% red zone TD rate means the Eagles do not need a ton of possessions to stack points.

• Expect pace pressure. Philly’s 14.7% no-huddle tendency can force simpler coverages and faster subs.

• The Eagles can hit chunk scores. Their big-play TD rate is 23.9% on 20+ yard plays, a strong mark.

• But the Eagles have a soft spot vs explosive runs. They allow explosive runs on 4.7% of carries (25th percentile), and Carter being out can make that harder to fix.

• Washington’s protection is shaky on paper. With Tunsil out, any dropback plan gets riskier against an Eagles defense with a 6.7% sack rate generated.

• Tight game decisions matter. Philly’s fourth-down aggression rate is low (25.0%, small sample), so field position and kick choices could swing close drives.

• Spread anchor: Eagles -7.0 (-103). Philly’s red zone TD rate (69.4%) supports separation if they keep getting inside the 20.

• Total anchor: Over 44.5 (-104). Philly’s red zone finishing can do a lot of work on a modest number like 44.5.

• Commanders team total look: Under 19.5 (-118). If Washington is on a backup tackle and leans conservative, 20 points is not a free climb.

• Prop lean: Dallas Goedert over 40.5 receiving yards (-118). Philly’s tempo and quick throws fit a tight end volume game.

• Prop lean: Jalen Hurts over 27.5 rushing yards (-122). Protection injuries can turn into scrambles, especially on broken third downs.

• TD angle: A.J. Brown anytime TD (-110). Philly’s red zone rate keeps top targets live even if yardage swings.

This game sets up as a trench-and-tempo battle. Philly wants to play fast, stay on schedule, and turn red zone trips into seven points. Their 69.4% red zone TD rate is the cleanest “how do they win” signal on the sheet.

Washington’s path is narrower. With Laremy Tunsil out, a pass-heavy plan can get messy fast, especially if the Eagles create pressure and sacks at their usual rate. That points to a lot of early-down runs and short throws, then hoping to win a few key downs late.

On the Philly side, Lane Johnson out adds real volatility. If the protection slips, drives can stall, and that matters because Philly’s field goal accuracy is only 77.3% (small sample). You can see how that pushes outcomes toward either quick TDs or empty trips.

From a betting lens, Eagles -7.0 and Over 44.5 are the clean anchors, with a close eye on injury news that could move both. If you play props, stick to roles that should be stable, and remember the juice matters. Laying -120 means you need to be right more often than a coin flip.